Vasilis Tsaprounis
Independent Analyst
The exchange rate remains in a limited range of fluctuation despite the stormy events in geopolitical and economic environment, with President Donald Trump announcing during his speech yesterday the imposition of 25% tariffs on the European Union but without specifying details.
For several weeks, markets have slowly digested President Trump's enigmatic personality and his intention to open important fronts with several ''corners'' of the globe, especially on issues of international trade.
Developments on the Ukrainian front are creating significant feelings of optimism, but as decisions may be delayed, the European currency is finding it difficult to find further support from this front.
In general, the market picture remains the same with the pattern of recent weeks remaining on the table as a fairly likely scenario.
Central banks decisions regarding the level of key interest rates remain at the top of investors' agenda's, with the interest rate gap remaining in favor of the US currency and the likelihood of this gap widening in the coming months remaining high.
The above is currently perhaps the most important obstacle in the European currency's attempt to re-approach levels close to 1.07 - 1.08.
Today's agenda is quite interesting, with the announcement of the Minutes from the last meeting of the European Central Bank and the growth rate of US economy standing out.
No changes in my thoughts, as we are quite far from the recent lows we are probably not at the right levels to consider buying the European currency on a dip and I would prefer a further peak near the 1,07 level for the possibility of buying the US dollar.
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