Vasilis Tsaprounis
Independent Analyst
The single European currency has steadily returned well above the 1,10 level trying to maintain a mild bullish. Last week's encouraging data from US retail sales and weekly jobless claims had a short-lived impact on the markets, briefly bringing the US currency back to the fore but not enough to restore the US dollar to some strong bullish momentum.
The European currency with nothing new to add to the table is taking advantage of speculation around the prospect of a rate cut by Fed in September, where 50 basis points remains on the table, which will narrow the interest rate gap between the dollar and the euro.
Bets around the prospects of Fed and ECB interest rate hikes have not changed significantly, but despite this, the speculation surrounding the Fed's moves is currently affecting the US currency as similar decisions from the European Central Bank are more expected and there will hardly be any big surpise from the Ecb side.
Αlthough the European currency has managed to secure the 1,10 level it remains in my view in the large trading range of 1,06 - 1,10 with possible big extensions as I have already mentioned in previous articles.
My doubts about the ability of the euro to continue the bullish momentum for a long time and easily stay above the 1.10 level and challenge the highs of the last few months near the 1.12 level remain.
However, I would prefer to maintain a conservative stance and not rush to buy the US currency at these levels as possible further upside remains on the table with a good chance.
Today's agenda is relatively indifferent with nothing of note with interest being focused on the course of international stock markets which has supported the rise of the European currency in recent days.
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