Vasilis Tsaprounis
Independent Analyst
The single European currency is trading just below the 1,06 level in the early hours of Tuesday, trying to maintain yesterday's mild reaction.
Without any major surprises and no important announcements, the beginning of the week gave the European currency the opportunity to show signs of reaction and move well away from the critical level on 1,05.
The market behavior of the last two days fully confirmed my thoughts as they had been expressed in recent articles as I had a strong belief that the intense upward momentum of the US currency would at some point show signs of fatigue, something that happened relatively soon.
However, as I mentioned, maintaining a fairly conservative approach I avoided taking a position in favor of the European currency.
Αnd this is because beyond some good reactions, the European currency will likely find it particularly difficult to maintain a continued reaction on the table.
The yields on US government debt securities, despite the marginal decline, remain at high levels, which supports the US currency, while at the same time geopolitical developments keep risks very high, supporting the US currency, which traditionally functions as a safe haven currency.
The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond touched a level of 4.50, the highest level since July.
The impending change in the presidency of the United States with Donald Trump's policies creating concerns about the return of inflationary pressures lead the yields to a significant rise recently, but I maintain the assessment that there will be some de-escalation relatively soon with the 10-year notes returning near to 4,00.
On today's agenda, in addition to consumer inflation in the eurozone, which certainly stands out, we have the announcement of housing starts in the United States.
If supported by the data, the European currency may maintain its consolidation mode and seek a further reaction.
As the US currency has confirmed the first signs of fatigue, might the idea of buying the European currency in new dips with the aim of reactions will put again on the table.
I would feel more comfortable positioning myself in favor of the European currency well below the 1,05 level.
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