Vasilis Tsaprounis
Independent Analyst
The single European currency is trading just above the 1.11 level in early trading hours on Friday ahead of the all-important US jobs data later in the afternoon.
Yesterday the exchange rate did not surprise and confirmed the scenario as I mentioned in yesterday's article of staying in a narrow range of fluctuation near the level of 1,11.
With a streak of 2 mild bullish rallies the European currency has moved away from the 1,10 level which was temporarily under challenge and now investors may will put fresh bets on the game .
Preliminary US jobs data released on Wednesday and yesterday disappointed markets and the US dollar was once again under fire while liquidation sentiment remained in US stock markets.
I remind that the contraction of the labor sector in the United States acted as one of the catalysts that weighed on the US currency and drove the euro to significantly higher prices 2 weeks ago.
Let's not forget that in several statements Fed's President has sent the message that further cooling in the labor sector is not desirable and he could use interest rate cuts as a weapon to stop the increase in the unemployment rate and by extension to prevent a possible recession in US economy.
The possibility of an increase of 50 basis points is not the main scenario and if it happens it will be a shock event that will affect the US dollar very negatively, but is something that I would not adopt especially if today's US jobs data will not disappoint.
Today's very rich agenda is complemented by the announcement on the course of development of the European economy.
It makes sense in a stormy news day that a wait-and-see stance would be the best idea, but keeping the thoughts of a possible position in favor of US dollar on a new peak well above the previous days high of 1.12.
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