Elliott Wave Forecast Team
ElliottWave-Forecast.com
EUR/GBP has been one of the most fascinating currency pairs in the forex market for years. After a minor bounce in July, the pair broke lower again and is now approaching the March 2022 lows. Consequently, we expect the downside to continue for several weeks toward our projected targets. So, when and where should traders look for opportunities?
Between July 2015 and March 2020, the pair completed a 5-wave bullish cycle. According to Elliott Wave Theory, a 3-wave correction typically follows a 5-wave trend. This is precisely what unfolded. Since March 2020, the pair has experienced multiple sell-offs to correct the nearly 5-year trend. We identified this corrective phase as a double zigzag structure, a 7-swing pattern. The first leg (wave W) ended in March 2022 but remains incomplete. Wave X, acting as the connector, followed and ended in September 2022. Since then, we have been counting wave Y, which began in September 2022.
EUR/GBP daily chart – 12.21.2024 weekend update
EUR/GBP, daily
Price has completed waves ((A)) and ((B)) of Y and is now in wave ((C)) of Y, as the chart above shows. Within wave ((C)), it appears that wave (1) has finished, and price is now correcting the 5-wave diagonal structure from August 2024 in wave (2). Wave (2) remains incomplete, as price is still within wave B of (2). If the current bounce develops into a 3- or 7-swing structure (zigzag or double zigzag), we aim to sell at the end of wave (2). We expect wave (2) to end below 0.8624, after which the price should continue lower toward the extreme zone of wave Y.
EUR/GBP one-hour chart – 12.21.2024 weekend update
EUR/GBP, H1
The H1 chart highlights the development of wave (2). Wave A of (2) ended with a 5-wave impulse structure. Price is currently recovering from the wave ((a)) pullback, identified as wave ((b)). One more leg lower for wave ((c)) above 0.8219 may occur before the price turns upward for wave C. Once wave B is confirmed, we can project where wave C might finish and plan to sell from the blue box.
However, it’s possible that price may not drop for wave ((c)) as expected. In that scenario, the last pullback for wave ((a)) could be identified as the end of wave B or even wave ((ii)) of A. Wave A might extend beyond current recognition before wave B follows.
FURTHER DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMER CONCERNING RISK, RESPONSIBILITY AND LIABILITY Trading in the Foreign Exchange market is a challenging opportunity where above average returns are available for educated and experienced investors who are willing to take above average risk. However, before deciding to participate in Foreign Exchange (FX) trading, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of xperience and risk appetite. Do not invest or trade capital you cannot afford to lose. EME PROCESSING AND CONSULTING, LLC, THEIR REPRESENTATIVES, AND ANYONE WORKING FOR OR WITHIN WWW.ELLIOTTWAVE- FORECAST.COM is not responsible for any loss from any form of distributed advice, signal, analysis, or content. Again, we fully DISCLOSE to the Subscriber base that the Service as a whole, the individual Parties, Representatives, or owners shall not be liable to any and all Subscribers for any losses or damages as a result of any action taken by the Subscriber from any trade idea or signal posted on the website(s) distributed through any form of social-media, email, the website, and/or any other electronic, written, verbal, or future form of communication . All analysis, trading signals, trading recommendations, all charts, communicated interpretations of the wave counts, and all content from any media form produced by www.Elliottwave-forecast.com and/or the Representatives are solely the opinions and best efforts of the respective author(s). In general Forex instruments are highly leveraged, and traders can lose some or all of their initial margin funds. All content provided by www.Elliottwave-forecast.com is expressed in good faith and is intended to help Subscribers succeed in the marketplace, but it is never guaranteed. There is no “holy grail” to trading or forecasting the market and we are wrong sometimes like everyone else. Please understand and accept the risk involved when making any trading and/or investment decision. UNDERSTAND that all the content we provide is protected through copyright of EME PROCESSING AND CONSULTING, LLC. It is illegal to disseminate in any form of communication any part or all of our proprietary information without specific authorization. UNDERSTAND that you also agree to not allow persons that are not PAID SUBSCRIBERS to view any of the content not released publicly. IF YOU ARE FOUND TO BE IN VIOLATION OF THESE RESTRICTIONS you or your firm (as the Subscriber) will be charged fully with no discount for one year subscription to our Premium Plus Plan at $1,799.88 for EACH person or firm who received any of our content illegally through the respected intermediary’s (Subscriber in violation of terms) channel(s) of communication.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
Gold remains within striking distance of new record-high above $3,300
Gold clings to strong daily gains above $3,300 after setting a new all-time peak near $3,320 earlier in the day. Continued concerns over the escalating US-China trade tensions and a weakening Greenback, support the demand for the metal prior to Powell's speech.
EUR/USD remains consolidative around 1.1350 on firmer US Retail Sales
EUR/USD maintains its daily gains around the 1.1350 region on the back of the resumption of the bearish tone in the Greenback, which showed no reaction to the stronger-than-expected Retail Sales in March. Later in the day, investors are expected to closely follow Fed Chairman Powell’s comments on the economic outlook.
GBP/USD recedes from tops and revisits the 1.3250 zone
GBP/USD extends its positive streak on Wednesday, now coming under some selling pressure around the 1.3250 after earlier multi-month tops around the 1.3300 mark. The daily uptick comes on the back of the weaker US Dollar and easing inflationary pressure in the UK.
Bitcoin stabilizes around $83,000 as China opens trade talks with President Trump’s administration
Bitcoin price stabilizes around $83,500 on Wednesday after facing multiple rejections around the 200-day EMA. Bloomberg reports that China is open to trade talks with President Trump’s administration.
Future-proofing portfolios: A playbook for tariff and recession risks
It does seem like we will be talking tariffs for a while. And if tariffs stay — in some shape or form — even after negotiations, we’ll likely be talking about recession too. Higher input costs, persistent inflation, and tighter monetary policy are already weighing on global growth.
The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD
SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.