EU inflation remains hot, oil plummets on talk of SPR release

- EU inflation data remains hot (France & Italy in session); Euro Zone reading on Friday.

- UK Q4 Final GDP revised higher but shock to income from inflation to slowdown in growth.

- Oil slumps on talk of additional SPR release forthcoming.

Asia

- South Korea Feb Industrial Production M/M: 0.0% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: 6.5% v 4.5%e.

- Japan Feb Preliminary Industrial Production M/M: 0.6% v 0.1% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 0.2% v 0.6%e.

- China Mar (govt official) Manufacturing PMI: registered its First contraction in 5 months (49.5 v 49.8e; Non-manufacturing PMI: 48.4 v 50.3e.

Russia/Ukraine

- German govt spokesperson: Putin told Scholz today that he still plans to sign a law that gas supplies must be paid in RUB currency (rubles) starting April 1st.

- Germany and Austria have taken the first formal steps towards gas rationing. This would result in some industries being cut-off from the gas network.

- State Dept official: India will expose itself to a 'great risk' if it significantly raises imports of Russian oil versus previous years.

Energy

- Biden Admin is considering a 'massive' release of oil to combat inflation; Could release up to 1.0Mbbls per day for 'months' from the Strategic Reserve (SPR).

- OPEC+ Joint Technical Committee to now use reports by Wood Mackenzie to assess crude oil production and conformity, to also use Rystad Energy [replaces IEA reports].

Speakers/Fixed income/FX/Commodities/Erratum

Equities

Indices [Stoxx600 -0.15% at 459.52, FTSE -0.05% at 7,574.95, DAX -0.07% at 14,610.29, CAC-40 -0.18% at 6,729.16, IBEX-35 -0.11% at 8,541.55, FTSE MIB -0.16% at 25,259.00, SMI +0.18% at 12,266.23, S&P 500 Futures +0.11%].

Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European indices open generally higher, but later turned around to trade modestly lower; sectors among those leading to the upside are financials and materials; sectors trending lower include consumer discretionary and real estate; RBC launches offer for Brewin Dolphin; CSC launches offer for Intertrust; Fresenius SE takes stake in mAbxience; focus on OPEC+ meeting later in the session; earnings expected during the upcoming US session include Walgreens Boots Alliance, Blackberry and Dominion Energy.

Equities

- Consumer discretionary: H&M [HMB.SE] -9% (trading update), Bertelsmann [BTG.DE] +0.5% (earnings).

- Energy: Gazprom [GAZP.RU] +7% (reportedly seriously considering the possibility of completely stopping gas supplies to "unfriendly countries").

- Financials: Brewin Dolphin Holdings [BRW.UK] +61% (offer to be acquired).

- Healthcare: Fresenius [FRE.DE] +2.5% (acquisition).

Speakers

- ECB’s Lane (Ireland, chief economist) stated that it was important to remain data-dependent and for optionality to be two-sided; to normalize policy in a gradual manner. Prepared to use a wide range of instruments to address fragmentation. Reiterated stance that current factors for inflation rise is not persistent; CPI to stabilize around target by end of horizon period.

- ECB’s Visco (Italy) stated that there would be no rate hikes before end of conventional QE bond buying program (APP).

- ECB's Enria (SSM chief) stated that ECB was in daily contact with banks regarding Russia sanctions.

- EU said to have raided natural gas companies in Germany over concerns of abuse of dominance.

- BOJ stated that it increased: Increased the purchases in quarterly QE JGB bond buying plan to maintain Yield Control. To firmly keep the 10-year JGB yield around the 0% target area. Saw upward pressure on entire yield curve.

- China Commerce Ministry (MOFCOM) spokesperson Shu Jueting reiterated that US should stop politicizing trade issue. Also reiterated view that both China and US trade teams were in normal communication.

- China Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Wang Webin stated that the govt to hit US officials with visa curbs as needed.

Currencies/Fixed income

- EUR/USD held onto its recent gains as EU inflation for Mar continued to rise in numerous countries. Dealers still noted that ECB commentary remained cautious amid uncertainty over the Ukraine war which could limit further gains in the pair.

- USD/JPY moved off its session’s lows into Japan fiscal-year end. BOJ announced an increased the purchases in quarterly QE JGB bond buying plan to maintain Yield Control. The move continued to highlight the divergence between BOJ and FED and markets eye another test of the key 125 resistance level.

Economic data

- (NL) Netherlands Feb Retail Sales Y/Y: 16.5% v 15.8% prior.

- (FI) Finland Feb Preliminary Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: -2.0% v +0.3% prior.

- (UK) Q4 Final GDP Q/Q: 1.3% v 1.0% prelim; Y/Y: 6.6% v 6.5% prelim.

- (UK) Q4 Final Private Consumption Q/Q: 0.5% v 1.2% prelim; Government Spending Q/Q: 1.5% v 1.9% prelim; Gross Fixed Capital Formation Q/Q: 1.1% v 2.2% prelim; Exports Q/Q: 6.9% v 4.9% prelim; Imports Q/Q: +0.3% v -1.5% prelim.

- (UK) Q4 Final Total Business Investment Q/Q: 1.0% v 0.9% prior; Y/Y: +1.0% v -0.8% prior.

- (UK) Q4 Current Account Balance: -£B v -£18.5Be.

- (UK) Q4 Mar Nationwide House Price Index M/M: % v 0.5%e; Y/Y: % v 13.4%e.

- (DE) Germany Feb Retail Sales M/M: % v 0.5%e ; Y/Y: % v 6.3%e.

- (FI) Finland Jan Final Trade Balance: -€1.0B v -€0.9B prelim.

- (DK) Denmark Q4 Final GDP Q/Q: 3.0% v 1.1% prelim; Y/Y: 6.8% v 4.4% prelim.

- (DK) Denmark Feb Unemployment Rate (seasonally adj): 2.2% v 2.3% prior; Gross Unemployment Rate: 2.5% v 2.7% prior.

- (CH) Swiss Feb Real Retail Sales Y/Y: 12.8% v 5.7% prior.

- (FR) France Mar Preliminary CPI M/M: 1.4% v 1.3%e; Y/Y: 4.5% v 4.3%e.

- (FR) France Mar Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 1.6% v 1.4%e; Y/Y: 5.1% v 4.9%e.

- (FR) France Feb PPI M/M:1.1 % v 4.7% prior; Y/Y: 22.4% v 22.4% prior.

- (FR) France Feb Consumer Spending M/M: 0.8% v 1.1%e; Y/Y: -2.3% v -0.9%e.

- (CH) Swiss Q4 Foreign exchange transactions (CHF): 12.6B v 2.8B prior..

- (CZ) Czech Q4 Final GDP Q/Q: 0.8% v 0.9% prelim; Y/Y: 3.6% v 3.6% prelim.

- (HU) Hungary Feb PPI M/M: 1.3% v 0.6% prior; Y/Y: 22.4% v 22.3% prior.

- (TR) Turkey Feb Trade Balance: -$7.9B v -$8.1Be.

- (TH) Thailand Feb Current Account Balance: -$0.7B v -$1.0Be; Overall Balance of Payments (BOP): +$2.8B v -$1.6B prior; Trade Account Balance: $3.4B v $0.6B prior; Exports Y/Y: 16.0% v 7.9% prior; Imports Y/Y: 14.2% v 18.4% prior.

- (HU) Hungary Central Bank left the One Week Deposit Rate unchanged at 6.15% (not expected).

- (DE) Germany Mar Unemployment Change: -18.0K v -20.0Ke; Unemployment Claims Rate: 5.0% v 5.0%e.

- (ES) Spain Jan Current Account Balance: -€2.6B v €0.0B prior.

- (IT) Italy Feb Unemployment Rate: 8.5% v 8.7%e (lowest since Apr 2020).

- (CZ) Czech Feb M2 Money Supply Y/Y: 6.1% v 6.9% prior.

- (NO) Norway Central Bank (Norges) Apr Daily FX Purchases (NOK): 2.0B v 0.3Be.

- (ZA) South Africa Q4 Non-Farm Payrolls Q/Q: 0.6% v 0.8% prior; Y/Y: 1.6% v 2.2% prior.

- (HK) Hong Kong Feb Retail Sales Value Y/Y: -14.6% v -7.7%e; Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: -17.6% v -19.0%e.

- (EU) Euro Zone Feb Unemployment Rate: 6.8% v 6.7%e.

- (BE) Belgium Feb Unemployment Rate: 5.6% v 5.6% prior.

- (IT) Italy Mar Preliminary CPI M/M: 1.2% v 0.9%e; Y/Y: 6.7% v 6.4%e.

- (IT) Italy Mar Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 2.6% v 2.7%e; Y/Y: 7.0% v 7.2%e.

- (IS) Iceland Feb Final Trade Balance (ISK): -21.0B v -15.1B prelim.

Fixed income issuance

- (SE) Sweden sold SEK500M vs. SEK500M indicated in 0.125% Jun Inflation-linked 2030 bonds; Avg Yield: -1.6280% v -1.6070% prior; bid-to-cover: 2.32x v 4.20x prior.

Looking ahead

- OPEC+ meeting.

- 05:25 (EU) Daily ECB Liquidity Stats.

- 05:30 (ZA) South Africa Feb PPI M/M: 0.9%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 10.2%e v 10.1% prior.

- 05:30 (SL) Sri Lanka Mar CPI Y/Y: No est v 15.1% prior.

- 05:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell 12-month Bills.

- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Feb Retail Sales M/M: No est v -2.8% prior; Y/Y: No est v 10.4% prior.

- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Mar Preliminary CPI M/M: No est v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: No est v 4.2% prior.

- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Mar Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: No est v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: No est v 4.4% prior.

- 06:00 (IL) Israel Feb Chain Store Sales Y/Y: No est v 1.1% prior.

- 06:00 (IN) India to release borrowing Calendar.

- 06:00 (ES) ECB’s De Guindos (Spain).

- 06:30 (IN) India Feb Fiscal Deficit (INR): No est v 1.785T prior.

- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing.

- 07:00 (CA) Canada Mar CFIB Business Barometer: No est v 62.5 prior.

- 07:30 (US) Mar Challenger Job Cuts: No est v -15.3K prior; Y/Y: No est v -55.9% prior.

- 08:00 (IN) India Feb Eight Infrastructure (Key) Industries: No est v 3.7% prior.

- 08:00 (ZA) South Africa Feb Trade Balance (ZAR): 21.9Be v 3.6B prior.

- 08:00 (CL) Chile Feb Manufacturing Production Y/Y: 0.3%e v 2.6% prior; Industrial Production Y/Y: No est v -1.1% prior; Total Copper Production: No est v 429.9K tons prior.

- 08:00 (CL) Chile Feb Retail Sales Y/Y: 12.4%e v 14.2% prior; Commercial Activity Y/Y: No est v 12.0% prior.

- 08:00 (BR) Brazil Feb National Unemployment Rate: 11.4%e v 11.2% prior.

- 08:00 (MX) Mexico Jan Gold Production: No est v 7.1K kilograms prior; Silver Production: No est v 335.6K kilograms prior; Copper Production: No est v 36.9K tons prior.

- 08:30 (US) Feb Personal Income: 0.5%e v 0.0% prior; Personal Spending: 0.5%e v 2.1% prior; Real Personal Spending (PCE): -0.2%e v +1.5% prior.

- 08:30 (US) Feb PCE Deflator M/M: 0.6%e v 0.6% prior; Y/Y: 6.4%e v 6.1% prior.

- 08:30 (US) Feb PCE Core Deflator M/M: 0.4%e v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: 5.5%e v 5.2% prior.

- 08:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 196Ke v 187K prior; Continuing Claims: 1.34Me v 1.350M prior.

- 08:30 (CA) Canada Jan GDP M/M: 0.2%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 3.6%e v 3.9% prior.

- 08:30 (BR) Brazil Feb Nominal Budget Balance (BRL): No est v 84.1B prior; Primary Budget Balance: No est v 101.8B prior; Net Debt to GDP Ratio: No est v 56.6% prior.

- 08:30 (CZ) Czech Central Bank (CNB) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to raise the 7-Day Repurchase Rate by 50bps to 5.00%.

- 08:30 (US) Weekly USDA Net Export Sales.

- 09:00 (RU) Russia Q4 Final Current Account Balance: No est v $41.8B prelim.

- 09:00 (US) Fed’s Wiliams.

- 09:45 (US) Mar Chicago Purchase Managers Index (PMI): 57.0e v 56.3 prior.

- 10:30 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories.

- 11:00 (MX) Mexico Feb Net Outstanding Loans (MXN): No est v 4.826T prior.

- 11:00 (CO) Colombia Feb National Unemployment Rate: No est v 14.6% prior; Urban Unemployment Rate: 13.7%e v 14.8% prior.

- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 4-Week and 8-Week Bills.

- 12:00 (US) USDA Quarterly Crop data.

- 12:00 (CA) Canada to sell 30-year bonds.

- 12:00 (NZ) New Zealand Mar CoreLogic House Prices Y/Y: No est v 25.2% prior.

- 12:00 (CH) SNB's Maechler and Moser at Money Market Event in Zurich.

- 14:00 (CO) Colombia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to raise Overnight Lending Rate by 150bps to 5.50%.

- 15:00 (AR) Argentina Jan Wages M/M: No est v 2.6% prior.

- 17:00 (NZ) New Zealand Mar Consumer Confidence Index: No est v 81.7 prior.

- 18:00 (AU) Australia Mar Final PMI Manufacturing: No est v 53.7 prelim.

- 19:00 (AU) Australia Mar CoreLogic House Price Index M/M: No est v 0.3% prior.

- 19:50 (JP) Japan Q1 Tankan Large Manufacturers Index: 12e v 18 prior; Manufacturing Outlook: 10e v 13 prior.

- 19:50 (JP) Japan Q1 Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index: 8e v 9 prior; Manufacturing Outlook: 8e v 8 prior.

- 19:50 (JP) Japan Q1 Tankan Small Manufacturers Index: -6e v -1 prior; Manufacturing Outlook: -8e v -1 prior.

- 19:50 (JP) Japan Q1 Tankan Small Non-Manufacturers Index: -9e v -4 prior; Manufacturing Outlook: -8e v -6 prior.

- 20:00 (KR) South Korea Mar Trade Balance: $0.0Be v $0.9B prior; Exports Y/Y: 19.0%e v 20.6% prior; Imports Y/Y: 27.5%e v 25.1% prior.

- 20:01 (IE) Ireland Mar PMI Manufacturing: No est v 57.8 prior.

- 20:30 (SG) Singapore Q1 Preliminary Home Prices Q/Q: No est v 5.0% prior.

- 20:30 (JP) Japan Mar Final PMI Manufacturing: No est v 53.2 prelim.

- 20:30 (KR) South Korea Mar PMI Manufacturing: No est v 53.8 prior.

- 20:30 (TW) Taiwan Mar PMI Manufacturing: No est v 54.3 prior.

- 20:30 (TH) Thailand Mar PMI Manufacturing: No est v 52.5 prior.

- 20:30 (PH) Philippines Mar PMI Manufacturing: No est v 52.8 prior.

- 20:30 (MY) Malaysia Mar PMI Manufacturing: No est v 50.9 prior.

- 20:30 (VN) Vietnam Mar PMI Manufacturing: No est v 54.3 prior.

- 20:30 (ID) Indonesia Mar PMI Manufacturing: No est v 51.2 prior.

- 20:30 (AU) Australia Feb Home Loans Value M/M: 1.5%e v 2.6% prior.

- 21:45 (CN) China Mar Caixin China PMI Manufacturing: 49.9e v 50.4 prior.

- 22:00 (ID) Indonesia Mar CPI M/M: 0.6%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 2.5%e v 2.1% prior; CPI Core Y/Y: 2.3%e v 2.0% prior.