Erste Bank Research Team
Erste Bank
On the radar
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Retail Sales in Slovenia declined by -3.6% y/y in September.
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In Hungary and Czechia 3Q24 GDP will be released tomorrow.
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Also tomorrow, Slovenia will publish flash estimate of October’s inflation, and Croatia will release retail sales data for September.
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There are no other releases today.
Economic developments
In the first half of 2024, average household electricity prices in the EU recorded a small rise compared with the second half of 2023, from EUR 28.3 per 100 kWh to EUR 28.9 per 100 kWh. Such development is driven by governments scaling back subsidies, allowances, and tax cuts for consumers. In the region, over the same period, average household electricity prices remained mostly unchanged at EUR 18.6 per 100kWh. In general, electricity prices for households are lower in the region compared to the whole EU. The lowest price of electricity is currently in Serbia and Hungary (EUR 10.8 and EUR 10.9 respectively), while Czechia is on the other side of spectrum with household electricity prices at EUR 33.8. However, in most CEE countries, subsidies and price caps are still in place, varying by their scale and targeting. In Poland, subsidies were rolled back in July, so the price jump is not yet recorded in the newest data. As far as gas prices are concerned, household gas prices, including taxes, fell in 15 out of the 24 EU countries that report gas prices.
Market movements
The CEE currencies remain weak against the euro while bond market showed mixed performance at the beginning of the week. Slovakia will offer the 7Y EUR benchmark. Poland spends a lot on defense as number gets close to 5% of GDP that is close to Russian levels according to Reuters. There are no other market related news.
This document is intended as an additional information source, aimed towards our customers. It is based on the best resources available to the authors at press time. The information and data sources utilised are deemed reliable, however, Erste Bank Sparkassen (CR) and affiliates do not take any responsibility for accuracy nor completeness of the information contained herein. This document is neither an offer nor an invitation to buy or sell any securities.
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