Gold started the year bullish with a strong extended leg to the upside close to 3k, but the move looks impulsive and may have found a temporary top near 2950. The reversal this week is coming from an ending diagonal, with the price now attempting to break the lower trendline support of the bullish channel. This suggests gold could be entering a corrective wave 4, likely unfolding in three waves. For those looking to join the trend, it’s better to wait for a deeper correction and a retest of lower support in this wave four pullback. Supports are at 2864 and 2789
At the same time, keep an eye on USD/CNH—if it pushes higher to retest its 2022 highs, gold could remain sideways for a while. Better opportunities to rejoin the gold uptrend may come after USD/CNH completes its recovery from the 2024 lows, possibly around 7.40.
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