EURUSD: It's Now Up (or Down) to the Market to Decide

It was an interesting week that ended pretty much in a stalemate. Price first rallied for a few day to test the 61.8% retracement level of the most recent decline, and it repeatedly failed to close above it. This led to a strong rebound towards the downside where the market made a new low, but just barely.

Right now our reasons for favoring the bearish view haven’t changed and are still as strong as they were last week. However, any impulsive rally at this point will provide compelling reason for abandoning our medium-term bearish view and moving to our alternate daily count.

We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.

Weekly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.1465 – 1.0525
– Confirmation Point: –
– Downwards Target: 1.0885 – 1.0727
– Wave number: Minor D
– Wave structure: Corrective
– Wave pattern: Zigzag

Weekly Alternate Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.1718 – 1.0821
– Confirmation Point: 1.1465
– Upwards Target: 1.1616 – 1.1673
– Wave number: Minor C
– Wave structure: Corrective
– Wave pattern: Double Zigzag

Big Picture



The bigger picture sees that the euro is moving towards the downside in teal wave x, which is forming a double zigzag labeled maroon waves W, X and Y.

Maroon wave Y is forming a zigzag labeled black waves (A), (B) and (C).

Black wave (A) formed an impulse labeled blue waves 1 through 5.

Black wave (B) is forming a contracting triangle labeled blue waves A through E.

Main Weekly Wave Count



This main count sees that blue wave C formed a double zigzag labeled pink waves w, x and y. It retraced exactly 78.6% of blue wave B.

Within it, pink wave y formed a zigzag labeled green waves (a), (b) and (c).

This count expects the euro to move towards the downside in blue wave D, which is likely forming a zigzag labeled pink waves a, b and c.

The MACD indicator supports this count by showing a clear bearish divergence between the highs of pink waves w and y, as well as a bearish crossover.

At 1.0886 blue wave D would retrace 61.8% of blue wave C, then at 1.0727 it would reach 61.8% the length of blue wave B.

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.1465 as pink wave b of this zigzag may not move beyond the start of pink wave a. It’s also invalidated by movement below 1.0525 as blue wave D may not move beyond the start of blue wave C.

Alternate Weekly Wave Count



This alternate daily count sees that pink wave y of blue wave C is still unfolding as a zigzag labeled green waves (a), (b) and (c).

Within it, green wave (a) formed a leading diagonal labeled orange waves i through v.

Green wave (b) formed a zigzag labeled orange waves a, b and c, retracing exactly 38.2% of green wave (a) so far. It’s likely complete or near completion.

This count expects the euro to resume move towards the upside in green wave (c), to complete pink y, and therefore blue wave C. This will be confirmed by movement above 1.1465.

At 1.1616 green wave (c) would reach 61.8% the length of green wave (a), then at 1.1673 pink wave y would reach 100% the length of pink wave w.

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.1718 as blue wave C of this contracting triangle may not move beyond the start of blue wave B. It’s also invalidated by movement below 1.0821 as green wave (b) of this zigzag may not move beyond the start of green wave (a).