The following are the intraday outlooks for USD Index, EUR/USD, AUD/NZD, USD/CAD, and spot Gold as provided by the technical strategy team at SEB Group.
USD INDEX: Overly stretched. Even though the longer term trend without question is positive there are several short term warning signs of an “overstretched” climb. First of all we are outside the 55d Bollinger bands (bullishly sloped) and secondly there’s a bearish pre-divergence (which will underpin any downside attempt). All in all we wouldn’t be too surprised to see a 81.26/19 setback before resuming the bull trend.
EUR/USD: Responsive buying. After initially dropping down to 1.3242 the sellers run out of steam and was soon, as warned of, replaced by short covering. It is of course too early to call for a more profound upside reaction (1.3430/40) to have started but there are multiple signs gathering that we are close to such a development (post triangle low, pre-divergence, support cluster and more). Above 1.3295 will add credibility to a developing correction case, below 1.3256 = a new low before a new correction attempt unfolds.
AUD/NZD: Building a top. Both the large bear flag formation, the flag ceiling and the fact that the latest consolidation was a triangle speaks in favor of a down turn. Yesterday’s price action was the first sign that a turnaround now seems to be underway. For today we recommend joining in on a break below 1.1066.
USD/CAD: Lower levels likely before up again. The prior high was yesterday taken out with the smallest of margins before sellers took control. This has added a potentially bearish candle pointing lower first thing. A recent bullish benchmark candle mid-body point at 1.0915 is one objective, but if not stopping there the ascending 55day exponentially weighted moving average band, now starting at 1.0880 could be what’s needed to lure buyers back to market.
Spot Gold: Find buyers here or drop to 1,260. The downmove is getting legs. Yesterday's bearish looking candle broke support at 1,280. It must be contested and reversed now to avoid extension down to the next set of refs acting as attraction/support in the 1,263-1,259 zone. To regain some upside traction resistance pockets at 1,292 & 1,304 must be reclaimed before long. The short-term bullish key ref to capture is located at 1,325.
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