Nick Mastrandrea
Market Tea Leaves
USD: Dec '24 is Up at 106.505.
Energies: Dec '24 Crude is Up at 69.70.
Financials: The Dec '24 30 Year T-Bond is Down 23 ticks and trading at 116.06.
Indices: The Dec '24 S&P 500 emini ES contract is 38 ticks Higher and trading at 5948.25.
Gold: The Dec'24 Gold contract is trading Up at 2632.00.
Initial conclusion
This is not a correlated market. The USD is Up and Crude is Up which is not normal, but the 30 Year T-Bond is trading Lower. The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is Higher, then the bonds should follow and vice-versa. The S&P is Higher and Crude is trading Higher which is not correlated. Gold is trading Higher which is not correlated with the US dollar trading Up. I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one is up the other should be down. I point this out to you to make you aware that when we don't have a correlated market, it means something is wrong. As traders you need to be aware of this and proceed with your eyes wide open. Asia traded Mixed. l of Europe is trading mainly Higher with the exception of the London exchange.
Possible challenges to traders
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FOMC Member Barr Speaks at 10 AM EST. This is Major.
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Crude Oil Inventories is out at 10:30 AM EST. This is Major.
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FOMC Member Cook Speaks at 11 AM EST. This is Major.
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FOMC Member Bowman Speaks at 12:15 PM EST. This is Major.
Traders, please note that we've changed the Bond instrument from the 10 year (ZN) to the 2 year (ZT). They work exactly the same.
We've elected to switch gears a bit and show correlation between the 2-year Treasury notes (ZT) and the S&P futures contract. The YM contract is the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the purpose is to show reverse correlation between the two instruments. Remember it's likened to a seesaw, when up goes up the other should go down and vice versa.
Yesterday the ZT migrated Higher at around 8 AM EST with no economic news pending. The Dow migrated Lower at the same time. Look at the charts below and you'll see a pattern for both assets. The Dow moved Lower at 8 AM and the ZT moved Higher at around the same time. These charts represent the newest version of Bar Charts, and I've changed the timeframe to a 15-minute chart to display better. This represented a Long opportunity on the 2-year note, as a trader you could have netted about 15 ticks per contract on this trade. Each tick is worth $7.625. Please note: the front month for ZT is Dec and the Dow is now Dec '24. I've changed the format to filled Candlesticks (not hollow) such that it may be more apparent and visible.
Charts courtesy of Barcharts
ZT -Dec 2024 - 11/19/24
Dow - Dec 2024- 11/19/24
Bias
Yesterday we gave the markets a Downside bias as the USD, Bonds and Gold were all trading Higher and that usually bodes well for a Downside Day. The Dow close Lower by 121 points but the other indices closed Higher. Today we aren't dealing with a correlated market and our bias is Neutral or Mixed.
Could this change? Of Course. Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.
Commentary
Yesterday it looked pretty solid that the markets would trade Lower and initially they did. However, by the end of the day it seemed the Dow would trade Lower and the other indices Higher. So, it closed a Mixed Day. Today we have crude oil inventories and a couple of FOMC members speaking. It might not be enough to drive all the indices Higher but we shall see. As in all things, only time will tell...
Trading performance displayed herein is hypothetical. The following Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) disclaimer should be noted.
Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown.
In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance trading results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight.
In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results.
There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.
Trading in the commodities markets involves substantial risk and YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY, and thus is not appropriate for everyone. You should carefully consider your financial condition before trading in these markets, and only risk capital should be used.
In addition, these markets are often liquid, making it difficult to execute orders at desired prices. Also, during periods of extreme volatility, trading in these markets may be halted due to so-called “circuit breakers” put in place by the CME to alleviate such volatility. In the event of a trading halt, it may be difficult or impossible to exit a losing position.
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