Dollar/Yen trade idea: How to play the short term trend accelerating higher

Introduction

VolatilityMarkets suggests top quant trade ideas to take advantage of trending markets.

Market summary

USDJPY last price was ¥ 134.8423. In the short term Dollar/Yen has been accelerating higher. In the long term Dollar/Yen has been accelerating higher. Over the past 20 days, the USDJPY price increased 17 days and decreased 3 days. For every up day, there were 0.18 down days. The average return on days where the price increased is 0.3548% The average return on days where the price decreased is -0.4206% Over the past 20 Days, the price has increased by 4.85% percent. Over the past 20 days, the average return per day has been 0.2425% percent. With the short term trend being the stronger of the two, we propose a long trade idea with an overnight time horizon.

The trade idea

Buy $ 416,514 USD, or 4.17 lots of Dollar/Yen, take profit at ¥ 135.1655 level with 50.08% odds for a $ 998 USD gain, stop out at ¥ 134.5186 with 50.0% odds for a $ 1,000 USD loss through O/N time horizon.

Intraday Predictions

USD/JPY trend analysis

USDJPY last price was ¥ 134.8423. The short term trend accelerating higher is stronger than the long term trend accelerating higher. This trade goes long when the last change was higher and accelerating.

USD/JPY value analysis

Over the past 20 days, the USDJPY price increased 17 days and decreased 3 days. For every up day, there were 0.18 down days. The average return on days where the price increased is 0.3548% The average return on days where the price decreased is -0.4206% Over the past 20 Days, the price has increased by 4.85% percent. Over the past 20 days, the average return per day has been 0.2425% percent.

USDJPY worst/best case scenario analysis

Within 1 week, our worst case scenario where we are 95% certain that this level won't trade for USDJPY, is $ 133.898762 , and the best case scenario overnight is $ 135.785904 . levels outside of this range are unlikely, but still possible, to trade. We are 50% confident that $ 134.5186 could trade and that $ 135.1655 could trade. These levels are within statistical probability.

Expected Range

Within 1 week, our worst case scenario where we are 95% certain that this level won't trade for USDJPY, is $ 133.898762, and the best case scenario overnight is $ 135.785904. levels outside of this range are unlikely, but still possible, to trade.

We are 50% confident that $ 134.5186 could trade and that $ 135.1655 could trade. These levels are within statistical probability.

Probability Vs Payout Chart:

This graph contrasts the percentage payout of holding a position vs the probability that the payout occurs. The red and green columns represent the probability of stopping out and taking profit and their associated payouts.

Key Takeaways:

• Price today ¥ 134.8423

• Over the past 20 days, the USDJPY price increased 17 days and decreased 3 Days.

• For every up day, there were 0.18 down days.

• The average return on days where the price increased is 0.3548%.

• The average return on days where the price decreased is -0.4206%.

• Over the past 20 Days, the price has increased by 4.85% percent.

• Over the past 20 days, the average return per day has been 0.2425% percent.

• Over the past 20 days, The price has on average been accelerating: 0.0182¥ per day higher.

• Over the last session, the price increased by 0.5047 ¥.

• Over the last session, the price increased by 0.3743 %.

• Over the last session, the price accelerated by 0.4825¥.