Dollar under tariffs pressure

Alexander Kuptsikevich FxPro

The US dollar has maintained its sluggish uptrend in the first half of the week, continuing to form a bottom, but it has encountered resistance. It is atypical for the dollar and US indices to move in the same direction. However, this is the situation currently, and it is dragging on because of tariff uncertainty.

The technical obstacle to growth was the approach to the 200-day moving average and the first line of the correctional bounce at 76.4% from the decline from February to the lows of March. In addition, the dollar index no longer looks so oversold, according to the RSI index on the daily timeframes.

EURUSD dipped to 1.0730 in the week, bouncing off its 200-day average. This is almost a mirror image of the dollar index's performance. The single currency managed to surface at levels around which it had been hovering for the previous two years. However, the softness of inflation data and fears of the effects of sanctions could bring the euro back down.

GBPUSD has been consolidating in a narrow range of 1.28-1.30 for the past three weeks, returning to its upper boundary by the end of the week. The negative bias against the dollar is pushing Cable to overcome the psychologically important round level of 1.30, which could be followed by a climb back to last year's highs near 1.34.

Author

Alexander Kuptsikevich

FxPro

Alexander Kuptsikevich, a senior market analyst at FxPro, has been with the company since its foundation. From time to time, he gives commentaries on radio and television. He publishes in major economic and socio-political media.

EUR/USD hits two-day highs near 1.1820

EUR/USD picks up pace and reaches two-day tops around 1.1820 at the end of the week. The pair’s move higher comes on the back of renewed weakness in the US Dollar amid growing talk that the Fed could deliver an interest rate cut as early as March. On the docket, the flash US Consumer Sentiment improves to 57.3 in February.

GBP/USD reclaims 1.3600 and above

GBP/USD reverses two straight days of losses, surpassing the key 1.3600 yardstick on Friday. Cable’s rebound comes as the Greenback slips away from two-week highs in response to some profit-taking mood and speculation of Fed rate cuts. In addition, hawkish comments from the BoE’s Pill are also collaborating with the quid’s improvement.

Gold climbs further, focus is back to 45,000

Gold regains upside traction and surpasses the $4,900 mark per troy ounce at the end of the week, shifting its attention to the critical $5,000 region. The move reflects a shift in risk sentiment, driving flows back towards traditional safe haven assets and supporting the yellow metal.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP rebound amid risk-off, $2.6 billion liquidation wave

Bitcoin edges up above $65,000 at the time of writing on Friday, as dust from the recent macro-triggered sell-off settles. The leading altcoin, Ethereum, hovers above $1,900, but resistance at $2,000 caps the upside. Meanwhile, Ripple has recorded the largest intraday jump among the three assets, up over 10% to $1.35.

Three scenarios for Japanese Yen ahead of snap election

The latest polls point to a dominant win for the ruling bloc at the upcoming Japanese snap election. The larger Sanae Takaichi’s mandate, the more investors fear faster implementation of tax cuts and spending plans.

XRP rally extends as modest ETF inflows support recovery

Ripple is accelerating its recovery, trading above $1.36 at the time of writing on Friday, as investors adjust their positions following a turbulent week in the broader crypto market. The remittance token is up over 21% from its intraday low of $1.12.