Doing a deal with the devil?

• Dollar rallies and closes the gap on its losses last week.

• Gold is in a liquidity crisis.

Good Day.. And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! What the heck has happened to my beloved Cardinals' pitching? It has surrendered multiple runs in recent games, and they don't look as if they have a clue as to how to retire batters! Serentiy Now! Yesterday, for the most part is a blur to me, as I was tired and slept most of the day and evening... As you know, I'm a firm believer of the idea that your body tells you how much sleep you need... So, there's that! The Climax Blues Band greets me this morning with their song: Couldn't Get It Right... 

Well, after getting taken to the woodshed on Thursday and Friday last week, the dollar came back strongly on Sunday night, and into Monday morning, but it stopped there on Monday morning... The BBDXY gained 2 index points from the overnight gain Sunday night, and as I said yesterday, it appeared that a correction in the dollar was taking place, and I stand by that idea... 

Because, otherwise, in my humble country boy opinion, the dollar would had have a field day on Monday, but it didn't... And through my years of experience watching the dollar, I think that the dollar didn't have any follow through, because, the dollar bugs thought that gain Sunday night, was enough, the dollar didn't deserve to go any higher... 

And so we begin today, with many questions about where the dollar is going to go today, and what driver will it use to get there. The euro, the offset currency to the dollar, is reacting to the dollar swings in normal fashion, with it rising and falling with each move the dollar makes. And the rest of the currencies follow the Big Dog, (euro) around town... 

Gold was subjected to more short paper trading yesterday, and at one point in the day's trading, Gold was down $67... Ouch! Now that's going to leave a mark! But the shiny metal fought and fought to end the day down $53... And close at $2,983... That's an ugly closing price, eh? Well, do something about it! Buy some physical Gold and get it going in the right direction! My dad used to tell me that when the chips are down, and it appears that all is lost, to put my head down and get to work...  

And that advice carried me through my working years for sure, and I do believe that's what it will take to get Gold moving in the right direction again... Bargain basement pricing for sure, but that's what you've been waiting for, isn't it? 

Here's Brien Lundin's take on the day's Gold Trading: "You already know that it was one of the wildest trading sessions ever seen. There have been bigger drops, and bigger rebounds. But perhaps never such a drop,

Rebound, drop, rebound and drop again." Brian is the head of the New Orleans Investment Conference, which is the grandaddy of all Conferences... And he has a day job as the head of the Jefferson Financial Co, in New Orleans... he puts out a weekly letter on Gold, and if you're a Gold bug, and can't get enough news on Gold, then you should check his letter out here: 4.7.25-Alert.pdf

Silver has done a deal with the devil... Or so it seems... A takeoff of Damn Yankees...  Silver, which was subjected to major short selling last week, has changed directions and is back in the good graces of the short Silver paper traders, or so it seems.. Silver gained 65-cents yesterday, and regained the $30 handle, after briefly falling below the $30 handle...  Silver closed yesterday at $30.18... 

The price of Oil wrapped a tourniquet around its price and stopped the bleeding for now, yesterday. Oil found a bid, and gained a buck on the day, to end the day trading with a $61 handle. And the 10-year Treasury has been bouncing around like a super ball... The yield on the 10-year gained some its lost ground yesterday rising to 4.16% on the day... There wasn't any data to speak of, well I take that back, there was the Consumer Credit (read debt) for February... But, that wouldn't have moved the bond boys to sell Treasuries... So, I wonder just what's on their collective minds right now... 

Well, here it is, what's on the bond boys' minds... From the AP this morning... "hedge funds sell bonds to reduce risk"... This goes back to the statement that Bill Bonner made last week, when he called buying Treasuries "the dumbest idea"... I've gone record here by saying that as long as you stay 3-years and in, on the yield curve, that a Treasury bond is OK... 

In the overnight markets last night... The dollar got bought some more, and we start our day today with the BBDXY up 3 index points to 1,267... This is interesting to me that is, that the dollar has fought back to regain most of the lost ground it experienced late last week... I shouldn't have highlighted the Swiss franc yesterday, because it lost the $1.17 handle overnight... I'm famous for jinxing currencies... Highlight them and they fade the next day... I guess I should stop highlighting them! Gold is rallying in the early trading this morning, and is up $34, while Silver is still dealing with the devil, and is up 24-cents to start the day today... 

Gold is caught in a liquidity crisis, (in stocks) folks, and will see these spurts higher, followed by selloffs... Keep in your lane here and don't panic when you see Gold off by multiples of 10, remember what the turtle said to the hare... Slow and steady, wins the race... 

The price of Oil remained trading with a $61 handle overnight, and the selling that the Hedge Fund guys are doing with the 10-year Treasury has its yield trading at 4.16% This morning... 

What do you suppose the answer to the question: "Will the tariffs make or break the U.S. economy"... The U.S. economy is on tenterhooks right now, and wouldn't need much of a push to propel it over the cliff... In my humble country boy opinion that is... I could be wrong, but I doubt it... In fact, my family members like to make a big deal out of the times in the past that I've admitted to being wrong about something... So, not wanting to harm my arm by sapping myself on the back, but it's a rare occurrence to come to the realization that I was wrong about something! 

I truly believe that history might not fully repeat itself, but it will close, lie a grenade has to be... And that is that the tariffs, if allowed to be implemented as announced, will do more harm than good to the economy, and the middle class's financial situation... Hey! The Rich Folks, won't feel it, it'll be like a rounding error for them, but you and me, and the guy down the street that cuts his grass with his shirt off, we'll feel the rise in prices more than anyone else... And we'll feel the businesses closing and the overall feeling of being in Liverpool in 1963...  Remember those pictures that the TV would show of Liverpool back when the Beatles hit the U.S. shores?  Now, those were depressing, but at the time we didn't put two and two together, and thought it looked like most U.S. cities here in the U.S., but that wasn't the case, now, was it? 

Funny, not funny ha-ha, that I'm always referring back to those days? Those are the days of my youth, and I can recall the events of those days easily, but I can't remember names and faces...  Those escape me, but I remember the folks that I was closest to, and that's all that matters to me!  

OK... the dollar is down -5.21% so far this year... And I reckon back to what I talked about yesterday, and that is that the dollar used to be a "safe haven" for crises that arise in the world... But it didn't last week, it ran and hid from investors... The drop in the dollar on Thursday & Friday last week was the dollar's biggest drop to start a year since 2008... Do you know what was going on then to cause a major drop in the dollar? November 2022 after President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on imports at levels not seen since the early 1900s. Stock markets also tanked, as tariffs ignited recession worries. Well, Increasing recession risks had put interest rate cuts back on the table in 2008; interest rates are one of the primary drivers of the U.S. dollar's value.  

So, you see, history does run circles around repeating, eh?  

2008, sure seems like a galaxy far away, doesn't it? 17 years ago... Watching a tot grow up to be a young adult... Like watching my darling granddaughter, Delaney Grace, grow up and drive, and do the things young adults do... She is so darling, and I love her to pieces, and tell her that every time I see her! Sorry, but I couldn't pass up telling you how much I love my daring Delaney Grace! her choir group recently traveled to NYC to sing a Carnagie Hall! Delaney's mom, my daughter, Dawn, sent me a short clip of the performance.. I told her that it must have been a thrill to sing at Carnagie Hall... Such a historic place! 

Not too much else to talk about this morning with regards to the markets, currencies, metals, economies and dolts... So, let's move on to the Big Finish!

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday, had the Consumer Credit (read debt) for February, and believe it or don't, Consumers paid down their debt in February, or so it seems per the Gov't bean counters... Here's some data for you to ingest, "Revolving credit, largely a reflection of credit card debt, edged up at an annual rate of 0.1% to $1.324 trillion. Non-revolving credit decreased at an annual rate of -0.3% to $3.673 trillion.

The Federal government holdings of student loans continue to be the largest portion of non-revolving credit, comprising 41.7% percent of non-revolving credit. Depository institutions and Finance companies are secondary and tertiary holders of non-revolving credit, with 22.6% and 19.5%, respectively of non-revolving credit."

I couldn't get my arms around this drop in consumer debt, here folks, and so I'll mark this as "Gov't book cooking"...  

Today's Data Cupboard is null and void of any real economic data, but we do have 2 Fed Heads out on the speaking circuit... 

To recap... The dollar's rebound stopped yesterday morning... At least it did rebound and regain some of its lost ground from late last week... But Chuck put it down as a correction of the all the selling...

The U.S. dollar is down -5.21% so far this year, and Chuck points to what was going on in 2008, to tell the tale of what's causing the dollar to lose ground in 2025... The euro continues to follow the dollar up and down and the rest of the currencies follow the Big Dog (euro) around... Gold had an unbelievable day yesterday, dropping like a rock and then soaring and then dropping more, and finally closing out down $53 on the day... Silver seems to have made a deal with the devil... According to Chuck... 

Here's your snippet: "Over the past few days, President Donald Trump and billionaire adviser Elon Musk have said on social media and in press briefings that people who are 100, 200 and even 300 years old are improperly getting benefits — a “HUGE problem,” Musk wrote, as his Department of Government Efficiency digs into federal agencies to root out waste, fraud and abuse.

It is true that improper payments have been made, including some to dead people. But the numbers thrown out by Musk and the White House are overstated and misrepresent Social Security data.

On Wednesday, Social Security’s new acting commissioner, Lee Dudek, acknowledged recent reporting about the number of people older than age 100 who may be receiving benefits from Social Security. “The reported data are people in our records with a Social Security number who do not have a date of death associated with their record. These individuals are not necessarily receiving benefits.”

Chuck again... Still, where there's smoke there's fire, right? I'm just saying that if there are deceased people receiving money each month that it would go a long way to fixing a problem if that were eliminated!

Market Prices 4/8/2025: American Style: A$ .6044, kiwi .5691, C$ .7053, euro 1.0940, sterling 1.2782, Swiss $1.1691, European Style: rand 19.4661, krone 10.9337, SEK 10.0809, forint 372.22, zloty 3.9052, koruna 22.9802, RUB 85.58, yen 146.94, sing 1.3498, HKD 7.7694, INR 86.26, China 7.2732, peso 20.53, BRL 5.9145, BBDXY 1,267, Dollar Index 103.00, Oil $61.99, 10-year 4.16%, Silver $30.41, Platinum $951.00, Palladium $922.00, Copper $4.51, and Gold... $3,017.22.

That's it for today... Congrats to The University of Florida for their win in the NCAA Basketball Championship for 2025... They won the game by 2 pts, VS Houston, and it was a barn burner of a game for sure... I kept switching back and forth between the basketball game and the Cardinals game, which they lost... And then went to sleep! I just couldn't get the sleep fairies from visiting me yesterday! Maybe I've tried to do too much in regard to getting up and around... Maybe... I just think that the trip back to St. Louis, was a lot for me, and it finally caught up with me... Today should be better... Now that I've caught up on my sleep! I've still not tried to climb the steps upstairs, but I'll have to Thursday, as there will be no Pfennig Thursday as I have an appointment with my oncologist bright and early on Thursday morning... This should be an interesting appt. The doctors at the hospital in Jupiter put me on steroids, which will eventually run out, but that has increased my appetite and weight gain... Oh well, que sera, sera... Our Blues, hockey team finally saw their winning streak end at 12 last night in Winnipeg... Dave Mason takes us to the finish line today with his song: We Just Disagree....  I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!