Directionless trading in Asia ahead of Trump-Harris US Pres debate

Asia market update: Directionless trading in Asia ahead of Trump-Harris US Pres debate & US CPI tomorrow night with ECB on Thurs.

General trend

- Asia equities were up at the open, fell down, and then up again in directionless, range-bound trading. Currencies and commodities also wandered the charts aimlessly.

- Hang Seng Mainland Properties Index -3% to hit a record low.

- New Zealand produced mixed figures in its Q2 Manufacturing Activity, however it measured the lowest volume of building activity seen in a June quarter since the COVID-impacted June 2020 quarter.

- Australia Sept Consumer and Aug Business Confidence figures both fell. Meanwhile, Wesfarmer’s CEO noted a degree of caution among households in Australia, a need to keep prices low "in a tough environment" . Also added that the RBA's approach is responsible, prudent.

- China exports rose over 8% in August, the fastest pace since March of 2023, while imports were flat, which will only add to global concerns of Chinese product dumping. Overall, China’s trade surplus with the US continues to widen, up another $3B m/m to $33.8B for Aug. China Crude oil imports were also the highest since Aug 2023 and Soybean imports were at a record high.

- A China oil researcher said that China oil products' demand peaked in 2023 and will be consistently falling over the next decade.

- SAP in focus for European trading, with Oracle early up nearly 9% in US after-hours on good revenue and earnings guidance.

- Ahead of tomorrow’s Trump-Harris Presidential debate, Independent candidate and now Trump campaign supporter RFK Jr. (Bobby Kennedy, Jnr) lost his appeal to have his name take off Michigan's Nov 5th presidential ballot.

- US equity FUTs -0.1% to -0.3% during the Asia session.

Looking ahead (Asian time zone)

- Wed Sept 11th US Trump-Harris Presidential debate; KR Unemployment; RBA’s Hunter; BOJ’s Nakagawa; (Wed eve UK July GDP; Wed night US Aug CPI; CN New Yuan Loans).

- Thu Sept 12th BOJ’s Tamura; (Thu eve ECB rate decision; US PPI).

- Fri Sept 13th.

- Sat Sept 14th China Aug ‘data dump’ (Ind. Production, Retail Sales, etc).

Holidays in Asia this week

- N/A.

Headlines/economic data

Australia/New Zealand

- ASX 200 opens +0.1% at 7,993.

- Australia Sept Westpac Consumer Confidence Index: 84.6 v 85.0 prior.

- Australia Aug NAB Business Confidence: -4 v 1 prior.

- Australia ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index: 82.3 v 83.1 prior.

- Australia sells A$100M v A$100M indicated in 2027 indexed bonds: Avg Yield: 1.1825% v 1.0981% prior; bid-to-cover: 4.61x v 3.90x prior (May 8th 2023).

- Follow up: Australia to introduce minimum age for social media access - press.

- APRA (Australia regulator) proposes update to bank capital framework to strengthen crisis preparedness – statement.

- Follow Up: Australia Shadow Treasurer Taylor: No circumstance where he will support RBA [reform] plan.

- Australia Treasurer Chalmers: Coalition position on RBA overhaul is disappointing.

- Coalition government to ‘kill’ Treasurer Chalmers’ RBA board overhaul; Chalmers to speak on RBA legislation at 8 am local time (10 GMT) – Australian press [overnight update].

- New Zealand Q2 Manufacturing Activity Q/Q: 0.1% v 0.8% prior; The lowest volume of building activity seen in a June quarter since the COVID-impacted June 2020 quarter.

China/Hong Kong

- Hang Seng opens flat at 17,205; Shanghai Composite opens +0.1% at 2,737.

- Hang Seng Mainland Properties Index -3%, hitting record low.

- China Aug trade balance: $91.0B V $81.1BE.

- China Aug trade balance (CNY-denominated): 649.3B V 601.9B prior.

- China oil industry researcher: China oil products demand to decrease by avg 1.1% pa between 2023-2025 - financial press.

- US and China military commanders to speak by phone for the first time in ‘years’ (as expected) – Press.

- US House passes BIOSECURE bill that targets some Chinese biotech firms - financial press.

- China MOFCOM: Officially announces anti-dumping investigation into Canadian rapeseed imports after prelim evidence shows dumping took place - follow up [overnight update].

- China Govt releases AI safety governance framework: Places equal emphasis on development and security – press [overnight update].

- China PBOC and Norway Central Bank (Norges) sign MoU on cooperation and monetary policy – press [overnight update].

- China PBOC sets Yuan reference rate: 7.1136 v 7.0989 prior.

- China PBOC Open Market Operation (OMO): Sells CNY186B in 7-day reverse repos; Net injects CNY185B v net injects CNY88B prior.

Japan

- Nikkei 225 opens +0.5% at 36,386.

- Japan Aug M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 0.9% v 1.0% prior (revised higher).

- LDP Leadership candidate Shigeru Ishiba: Releases policy document.

- Japan sells ¥2.3T VS. ¥2.3T indicated in 5-year JGB bonds; AVG yield: 0.5210% V 0.4520% prior; bid-to-cover: 3.76X V 3.51 prior.

South Korea

- Kospi opens +0.3% at 2,542.

- South Korea Fin Min Choi: Conditions in place for WGBI inclusion.

- South Korea financial watchdog Lee Bok-hyun ‘warned’ of household debt turning into systemic risk – Press [update].

- North Korea Leader Kim seeks to bolster nuclear capabilities and to bolster military power for readiness to use properly at any given time, specifically to have a presence against the US and outside threats.

Other Asia

- Thailand Dep Fin Min: Short-term economic stimulus is necessary; Govt plans to give ~THB145B to vulnerable groups late this month [overnight update].

- Thailand Fin Min Pichai: THB currency (Baht) is too strong and has impacted imports [overnight update].

North America

- Independent Presidential Candidate RFK, Jr. loses appeal; Michigan Supreme Court declares Kennedy's name will appear on Michigan's Nov 5th presidential ballot - US press.

- Biden Admin sends US Congress its Ukraine Strategy Report - financial press.

- (US) July consumer credit: $25.5B V $11.2BE.

- (US) Aug Manheim wholesale used vehicle Index: 203.9 v 202.6 prior; +1.2% m/m; -3.9% y/y.

- (MX) Mexico Aug CPI M/M: 0.0% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 5.0% v 5.1%e.

- (US) July final wholesale inventories M/M: 0.2% V 0.3%E.

- NHC: Tropical disturbance upgraded to tropical storm Francine, which is expected to intensify with storm surge and hurricane watches issued for Louisiana coast.

Europe

- (DE) German Econ Min Habeck: Draghi is right, we need massive investment, comprehensive reforms, strengthened resilience.

- Eurozone Sept sentix investor confidence: -15.4 V -12.2E (lowest reading of year).

Levels as of 01:20 ET

- Nikkei 225 +0.4%; ASX 200 +0.4%; Hang Seng +0.4%; Shanghai Composite -0.4%; Kospi -0.1%.

- Equity S&P500 FUTs -0.1%; Nasdaq100 FUTs -0.3%, Dax -0.4%; FTSE100 -0.4%.

- EUR 1.1028-1.1042: JPY 142.86-143.55; AUD 0.6644-0.6672; NZD 0.6132-0.6156.

- Gold flat at $2,532/oz; Crude Oil -0.2% at $68.56/brl; Copper -0.3% at $4.1210/lb.