Danske Research Team
Danske Bank A/S
Danish card data suggests that spending excluding energy increased by 1.0% in June compared to the same month the year before. Consumer prices excluding energy increased 1.3% over the same period, meaning that in real terms spending excluding energy decreased by 0.3%.
The setback in consumption is a bit surprising to us considering solid increases in real wages and consumer confidence during Q2. We still expect decent growth in consumption in 2024, but the consumption figures from June indicate that although the overall trend is strengthening consumption, we can see setbacks now and then. In addition, the upside risk that we previously highlighted for consumption has decreased due to upward adjustments in historical data from Statistics Denmark for consumption relative to income.
Retail trade decreased 0.4% in real terms in June, and especially spending in clothing, shoe, DIY and jewellery stores dropped compared to June last year. On the other hand, spending in furniture stores continue to perform well nominally, and with prices down around 11% compared to June last year, furniture spending is increasing rapidly in real terms. However, spending in furniture stores is still below pre-covid levels if we adjust for price developments. We also saw decent growth in sporting goods stores as well as electronics stores.
Travel spending improved somewhat in June. Spending at travel agencies bounced back into positive growth territory for the first time since March. Nominal airlines spending growth continues to be positive but taking into account flight prices increasing nearly 16% in June, real airlines spending is still lower than last year.
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