Denmark spending monitor - Retail spending weakens through first half of September

• Danish card data suggests that consumer spending was 1.5% higher in the first two weeks of September compared to the first two weeks of September last year. This points towards slightly weaker consumption in September than in August, where spending was 2.2% higher compared to same month the year before.
• Retail spending had a rough first two weeks of September. Compared to the same period last year retail spending was down 1.1%. We will have to wait for September CPI print medio October to know if prices have an effect on this development. Retail prices have remained elevated until now so there was likely a significant real decline in retail spending, unless retail inflation has decreased drastically in September or spending improves in second half of September.
• Clothing and shoe spending were much lower than usual for September. The unusally warm weather possibly plays a role for this development, since consumers may postpone their shopping for warmer clothes to later in the year.
• Looking at spending in gas stations, we can clearly see an effect of higher oil prices. Annual growth is still in negative territory, but it has gradually increased from -20% in the middle of July to just below zero in the latest observations in September.
• The great period for cinemas seems to have ended for now and annual growth is back to the negative rates that we saw in the spring. On the other hand, restaurant and theater spending growth are trending upwards. We still see positive growth rates in airlines and travel agency spending, even though the growth rates are not as high as they were in July and August.

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