Danish card data suggests that spending increased by 2.7% in June compared to June last year. That is an improvement from May, where year-over-year spending increased by 0.8%. Compared to 2019 June, spending was up 17% in nominal terms.
Retail spending increased by 5.2% compared to June last year. That is the highest yearover-year growth rate since January 2022, and the second month in a row with nominal retail spending growth. June 2023 is just the fourth month since March 2022 with positive retail spending growth. If goods inflation continues to come down, retail spending starts to look quite strong overall. We will have to wait for Danish CPI on Monday to evaluate how retail spending performs in real terms.
Especially grocery spending increased rapidly through June and was 9.7% higher than a year ago. We still saw significant food inflation in May at around 11%. This means that food inflation does not have to decline much more in June before we actually see a positive real growth in grocery spending. According to Statistics Denmark around 45% of retail trade companies selling food and beverages expect to lower their prices over the next three months.
Travel spending continues to be around the same level as a year ago. This is also what we see for other services like restaurants and hotels. Cinemas continue to perform badly, while concerts and theatres perform very well compared to a year ago.
We have seen an upward trend in spending in 2023, supported by lower inflation, stronger wage growth and continued stability around energy prices. Figures from the last few months show that consumers have increased their spending a little more the last few months than we saw earlier in 2023.
This publication has been prepared by Danske Bank for information purposes only. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Whilst reasonable care has been taken to ensure that its contents are not untrue or misleading, no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness and no liability is accepted for any loss arising from reliance on it. Danske Bank, its affiliates or staff, may perform services for, solicit business from, hold long or short positions in, or otherwise be interested in the investments (including derivatives), of any issuer mentioned herein. Danske Bank's research analysts are not permitted to invest in securities under coverage in their research sector.
This publication is not intended for private customers in the UK or any person in the US. Danske Bank A/S is regulated by the FSA for the conduct of designated investment business in the UK and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.
Copyright () Danske Bank A/S. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by copyright and may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
AUD/USD holds steady near 0.6250 ahead of RBA Minutes
The AUD/USD pair trades on a flat note around 0.6250 during the early Asian session on Monday. Traders brace for the Reserve Bank of Australia Minutes released on Tuesday for some insight into the interest rate outlook.
USD/JPY consolidates around 156.50 area; bullish bias remains
USD/JPY holds steady around the mid-156.00s at the start of a new week and for now, seems to have stalled a modest pullback from the 158.00 neighborhood, or over a five-month top touched on Friday. Doubts over when the BoJ could hike rates again and a positive risk tone undermine the safe-haven JPY.
Gold price bulls seem non-committed around $2,620 amid mixed cues
Gold price struggles to capitalize on last week's goodish bounce from a one-month low and oscillates in a range during the Asian session on Monday. Geopolitical risks and trade war fears support the safe-haven XAU/USD. Meanwhile, the Fed's hawkish shift acts as a tailwind for the elevated US bond yields and a bullish USD, capping the non-yielding yellow metal.
Week ahead: No festive cheer for the markets after hawkish Fed
US and Japanese data in focus as markets wind down for Christmas. Gold and stocks bruised by Fed, but can the US dollar extend its gains? Risk of volatility amid thin trading and Treasury auctions.
Bank of England stays on hold, but a dovish front is building
Bank of England rates were maintained at 4.75% today, in line with expectations. However, the 6-3 vote split sent a moderately dovish signal to markets, prompting some dovish repricing and a weaker pound. We remain more dovish than market pricing for 2025.
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads
VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.