Danske Research Team
Danske Bank A/S
Danish card data suggests that spending excluding energy increased by 4.9% in December compared to the same month the year before. Adjusting for inflation, spending excluding energy increased by 3.3%. This confirms the trend from the last couple of months of a pickup in spending in Q4, after weak spending in Q2 and Q3, and lands 2024 growth in real spending excluding energy at 2.1% compared to 2023. Compared to 2019 spending in 2024 in real terms was up 2.9% excluding energy. Far from impressive over a five year period, but moving upward.
In December, retail spending increased only 0.3% in real terms compared to December 2023. This was mainly due to weak grocery spending, which fell 2.1% in real terms due to higher food prices compared to December 2023. Excluding groceries, retail spending looked better, increasing 2.6% in real terms. Holiday shopping in both November and December, excluding groceries and adjusted for prices, landed at 1.3% compared to the year before.
Across retailing, we continue to see rapid growth in furniture spending, which was up 10.8% since December 2023 in real terms. Spending in electronics and household appliances stores increased by 5.3%; however, this was probably affected by Cyber Monday falling in December in 2024 and November in 2023. Cosmetics and sporting goods stores continue to perform well, while clothing, jewellery, and DIY posted disappointing Christmas sales.
In December, travel-related spending picked up, and theaters and concert halls continues to perform extremely well. Restaurants, on the other hand, saw somewhat weaker growth. Consumers continue to spend more on streaming service.
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