De-Dollarization or just another weekend doom spiral?

Every corner of FinTwit, Substack, and Telegram is singing from the same apocalyptic hymn sheet: “The dollar’s finished.” The call is in from TikTok FX bros to boomer macro newsletters — this is the endgame for King Dollar.

And no, it’s not just the usual crew of Internet Analysts lighting the match.

If you’re fortunate — or unfortunate — enough to be on one of Wall Street’s trading bank commentary email lists, rest assured: your inbox is about to get torched with a full-blown de-dollarization mantra this weekend.

Sure — the dollar’s been trading like a currency looking for its next gig. Even DB’s George Saravelos, who typically has a cool head, has flipped to “Dollar Collapse Mode,” hammering the same bearish thesis. That might be something to note, but I disagree with his thesis.

Seriously — the usual macro signals break down for five trading sessions, and now, metaphorically, of course, we’re witnessing the fall of Rome. Treasuries wobble, swap spreads scream, the dollar loses a few safe haven points — and voilà, everyone’s lighting the funeral pyre for King Dollar.

But come on. This isn’t the end of the empire. It’s a plumbing glitch — not a monetary extinction event. Let’s not mistake some cracked pipes for a collapsed foundation.

Look, folks, the Dollar is going lower

Undeniably, the dollar is heading lower—not by accident but by design. With the Trump administration leaning hard into an economic reset narrative and Bessent’s fingerprints all over what smells like early-stage wealth redistribution, a strong dollar doesn’t fit the new macro regime.

So, let’s be clear: a weaker dollar isn’t a bug — it’s the feature.

Is EURUSD grinding up into a 1.1500–1.2000 zone? Absolutely. Is USDJPY heading back to 125–135? I wouldn’t be surprised. Of course, this is bound to rattle a few cages at the ECB and BoJ — both of which require the opposite FX setup to safeguard their export engines—tough luck.

But here’s the kicker: yeah, the dollar should weaken. That much is priced in. What’s not? This breathless leap into full-blown de-dollarization spiral talk. Let’s pump the brakes. Currency regimes don’t collapse in one bond tantrum or five days of correlation mush.

The setup’s changing, no doubt — but the reserve currency crown isn’t getting handed off just yet.

Color me skeptical. Let’s not confuse smoke with fire just yet.

This isn’t my first FX rodeo. I’ve seen the “Death of the Dollar” story recycled more times than I can count. In fact, until this year, most of the same folks were prepping a EUR parity party — now they’ve flipped and are printing “RIP USD” memes like it’s gospel. Give me a break.

Indeed, analysts have called time on the buck every year since the AOL dial-up era, except this one. This year, they came in pounding the table on EUR/USD parity. Fast forward four months, and now they’re calling for the dollar’s funeral pyre.

You can’t make this stuff up.

Here’s the trader truth: your forecast matrix gets real fuzzy past six weeks. After eight? Total coin toss. Central banks know this — it’s why they work so hard to suppress currency vol. The whole market starts wheezing when EURUSD makes a 300-pip monster round trip in two hours.

And that’s precisely what happened this week.

Look what’s going on in this escalating FX/capital war

PBoC is buying stocks with both hands, selling dollars, and doing everything it can to prop up the yuan and give the illusion of calm.

Meanwhile, the Fed? Still on mute — letting yields rip and plumbing creak.

This dynamic will break voluntarily, or Trump will force Powell to act. Either way, this weekend might be the last calm before the central bank storm.

Jay, if you’re reading this, the market has questions—big ones.

Like: Where exactly is China getting the firepower to soak up what should be a full-blown domestic currency crisis? Because if they’re selling Treasuries to prop up the yuan while holding the equity tape together with National Team duct tape… well, that’s not just intervention. That’s a capital flow grenade.

And if that’s the case — if the PBoC is dumping bonds — when does the Fed step in and take the other side of the trade? Because USTs are wobbling, swap spreads are screaming, and the dollar no longer acts like a safe haven. That’s not normal — that’s a warning shot.

Maybe it’s time to dust off the batphone.

Jay, Kazuo, Lagarde — huddle up.

The FX market is asking hard questions. Global macro desks are connecting the dots. And if the dollar keeps slipping while bonds crack and volatility rips, someone’s going to have to answer.

Because this isn’t about theory anymore. This is about plumbing. And when the pipes burst, it’s not just about currency levels — it’s about systemic trust.

Forex markets

The USD's slide has gone full tilt, with the DXY now plumbing its lowest levels since April 2022. What started as isolated weakness turned into broad-based selling by week’s end, even as yield spreads have moved in favor of the U.S. — and that’s your tell. This isn’t about rates anymore. We’re now in a zone where confidence in U.S. assets is cracking, and triple selling — bonds, equities, and the dollar — is the symptom.

Some say it’s a U.S. growth scare. I say it’s a plumbing issue first, sentiment second. The truth? It's probably somewhere in the murky middle.

The real question here — what’s the endgame? What restores the order? I’m not sure there is a quick fix, but the ECB and BoJ might need to bite the bullet on a stronger currency.

Unless we see EURUSD convincingly break below 1.1000, I’m sticking with the view that you grab the dips over the next 8-week horizon — if they show up. But here’s the kicker: be ready to chase if the tarot cards start spelling out a new dollar order. This isn’t the time to be stubborn — the FX tape is telling a story, and right now, that story leans euro-friendly unless proven otherwise.

Mar-a-Lago accord

Let’s not kid ourselves — the writing is on the macro wall. Confidence in the dollar isn’t just slipping, it’s being intentionally reset. You don’t need to tag every bank lobbyist on Wall Street to see where this is headed: a Mar-a-Lago Accord is coming to an EBS screen near you.

Credit to Zoltan Poszar, the macro wizard who planted the seed back in June 2024 — the idea that the U.S. could force allies to accept a weaker dollar and lower Treasury yields in exchange for continued shelter under the American security umbrella. Sound familiar? It’s Plaza Accord 2.0 — only this time the venue shifts from the Plaza Hotel to Trump’s Mar-a-Lago Club, because of course it does.

Then came Stephen Miran — former Hudson strategist, now running point as chair of Trump’s Council of Economic Advisors — who laid out the blueprint in that under-the-radar paper last fall. Few paid attention then, but now it reads like a cheat code for everything we’re seeing play out: tariffs, security tie-ins, capital flow pressure — all roads lead to a coordinated dollar devaluation.

Trump’s macro worldview is simple:

• A strong dollar destroyed U.S. manufacturing
• Reserve currency status brought in hot money and hollowed out the base
• Meanwhile, the U.S. foots the global security bill while everyone else gets a free ride

So now the fix is in:

• Weaken the dollar
• Reshore industry
• Restore the “American Dream” by taking a blowtorch to the old order

This isn’t your garden-variety currency drift. This is a deliberate, strategic dollar reset. Forget rate differentials and CPI prints for a second — if we’re entering a Mar-a-Lago macro regime, the FX playbook needs rewriting.

Call it what it is:

Axis vs Allies, trade edition

The U.S. is lining up friends, isolating adversaries, and putting the dollar on a global leash.

Now ask yourself: Are you positioned for that?