DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 03 Apr 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1216
The single currency's fall yesterday and break of Friday's low at 1.1210 to 1.1184 suggests a re-test of March's 20-montht rough at 1.1177 is forthcoming after consolidation, break would extend marginally, however, loss of momentum would prevent sharp move beyond and risk would increase for a much-needed correction later this week.
On the upside, only above 1.1286 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger correction to 1.1327/32 but resistance at 1.1392 should remain intact.
There is a slew of services PMIs out from the eurozone today but pay attention to the release of EU retail sales mm and yy at 09:00GMT.
Street forecasts are 0.2% and 2.3% vs previous readings of 1.3% and 2.2% respectively.
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EUR/USD treads water just above 1.0400 post-US data
Another sign of the good health of the US economy came in response to firm flash US Manufacturing and Services PMIs, which in turn reinforced further the already strong performance of the US Dollar, relegating EUR/USD to the 1.0400 neighbourhood on Friday.
GBP/USD remains depressed near 1.2520 on stronger Dollar
Poor results from the UK docket kept the British pound on the back foot on Thursday, hovering around the low-1.2500s in a context of generalized weakness in the risk-linked galaxy vs. another outstanding day in the Greenback.
Gold keeps the bid bias unchanged near $2,700
Persistent safe haven demand continues to prop up the march north in Gold prices so far on Friday, hitting new two-week tops past the key $2,700 mark per troy ounce despite extra strength in the Greenback and mixed US yields.
Geopolitics back on the radar
Rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine caused renewed unease in the markets this week. Putin signed an amendment to Russian nuclear doctrine, which allows Russia to use nuclear weapons for retaliating against strikes carried out with conventional weapons.
Eurozone PMI sounds the alarm about growth once more
The composite PMI dropped from 50 to 48.1, once more stressing growth concerns for the eurozone. Hard data has actually come in better than expected recently – so ahead of the December meeting, the ECB has to figure out whether this is the PMI crying wolf or whether it should take this signal seriously. We think it’s the latter.
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