GBP/USD tests long-term up-trend

Technical Analysis

EUR/USD steps lower

“The Fed will continue to taper as usual. The dollar should keep rising.”

- Sumitomo Mitsui Banking (based on Bloomberg)

• Pair’s Outlook

  As expected, the Euro carried on losing its positions, though it did not break any significant levels yesterday. Right now the currency is facing the support created by the monthly S3 and weekly S1. Once they are out of the way, 1.33 is likely to become the next target. However, despite the ‘buy’ signals on a monthly time-frame, it seems the market will remain bearish until the price falls down to 1.28—2013 lows.

• Traders’ Sentiment

  There is still a tug of war between the bulls (56%) and bears (44%), and neither party has been able to take a leading role in the recent past. Meanwhile, there is a widening gap between the buy (37%) and sell (63%) orders placed on EUR/USD.

GBP/USD tests long-term up-trend

“People are starting to believe there is going to be concrete action from the Fed in terms of raising rates.”

- WorldWideMarkets (based on Reuters)

• Pair’s Outlook

  The U.S. Dollar is strengthening, and there are less and less chances that GBP/USD will realise the bullish potential implied by the weekly and monthly technical studies. The monthly pivot point and 55-day SMA failed to stop the sell-off from 1.72, now the positive outlook is in the hands of the up-trend and 100-day SMA. If these are unsuccessful at attracting demand as well, the Sterling will be expected to drop down to at least 1.67.

• Traders’ Sentiment

  The advantage the bears had over the bulls in the past has finally come to naught, as now there is only an eight-percentage-point difference between the bullish (46%) and bearish (54%) traders in the SWFX market.

USD/JPY cannot be stopped

“The greenback will likely be in a tug-of-war around ¥102, with a slew of selling orders above that level.”

- Ueda Harlow (based on MarketWatch)

• Pair’s Outlook

  Although at some point everything appeared to be over for the bulls, USD/JPY proved to be able to rally by breaking the 100-day SMA and seven-month down-trend. There are still the monthly R1 and 200-day SMA lying overhead, but now a possibility of further appreciation of the Dollar is notably higher than before. If the pair manages to get a foothold above 102.50, the 2014 high at 105.44 may be the next objective.

• Traders’ Sentiment

  The share of long positions contracted even more, but there are still significantly more proponents of a rally in the market, namely 67% of the traders. As for the orders, 63% of them 100 pips from the spot are set to acquire the Buck against the Yen.

USD/CHF advances towards 2014 high

“The dollar managed to mark a number of notable, bullish technical breaks versus its major counterparts despite the fact that Wednesday's Q2 GDP release and FOMC rate decision are likely to impact the greenback specifically - regardless of the outcome.”

- DailyFX (based on CNBC)

• Pair’s Outlook

  Monday looked like a start of a bearish correction, but in the end USD/CHF did not even have to retreat to the weekly PP to regain its upward momentum. The pair is probing the weekly R1 at the moment, which is followed by a relatively tougher resistance at 0.91 (monthly and weekly R2). Once there levels are overcome, it is going to be the turn of this year’s high (also weekly and monthly R3) at 0.9156 to feel the strength of the bullish momentum for itself.

• Traders’ Sentiment

  The current distribution between the longs and shorts is the same as yesterday—74 and 26% respectively, meaning the market is strongly convinced that the Greenback is undervalued. In the meantime, the amounts of buy (54%) and sell (46%) orders are nearly equal.