Investors look towards the Fed and US GDP

Australian Dollar:

Having tracked sideways for the majority of yesterday’s domestic session investors remained starved of any substantial economic developments. Shedding around 30 basis points, touching a mid-afternoon low just above the 78 US Cents mark the Australian dollar once again has failed to successfully secure higher ground. Coming off highs of 0.7883 and having struggled on approaches towards the 79 US Cents barrier all week,  tonight’s session promises to be an important one given Fed Chair Janet Yellen is due to speak about monetary policy at the Federal Reserve Bank Conference in San Francisco. Around 0.2 percent lower this morning the Australian dollar currently swaps hands at a rate of 0.7815.

• We expect a range today of 0.7770 – 0.7900

New Zealand Dollar:

During a flat session which generally favoured a move back into US dollar dominated assets the New Zealand dollar was left to flounder, trading between a low of 0.7554 and a high of 0.7662 when valued against its US Counterpart. Whilst US data flows were positive overnight, indicative of a broader recovery, this evening’s session is shaping as another dominated by US dollar moves ahead of a quarterly GDP print from the United States. Opening this morning around 30 basis points weaker the New Zealand dollar currently buys 75.77 US Cents.   

• We expect a range today of 0.7540 – 0.7620

Great British Pound:

In what’s a positive for Britain’s economy a report overnight showed UK retail sales rose by their fastest face in three months during February, rising by 0.7 percent, a number which comfortably surpassed consensus estimates. Not sufficient enough however to offer any lasting benefit to the Great British Pound which has remained in a subdued mood since Tuesday’s Inflation shock, a stronger Greenback overnight has also played its role. Opening weaker against the US dollar at 1.4847 the Sterling is also weaker against the New Zealand dollar (1.9583) whilst steady against the Aussie (1.8983).  

• We expect a range today of 1.8930 -1.9050

Majors:

Given heightened tensions in the Middle East the US dollar is stronger when valued against a handful of its major peers this morning. With Oil Prices jumping and US stocks notching up some small gains a lack of data from the world’s largest economy has left interest rate expectations and economic perceptions on hold over the past 24 hours. Whilst US weekly unemployment claims and a preliminary manufacturing index both surpassed expectation, the catalyst for a further round of volatility lies within US GDP numbers this evening. Meanwhile in Europe bond yields, currency valuations and well as broader sentiment indicators threaten to be upset over the coming weeks as Greece to date have struggled to come up with a reform plan detailed enough to ensure further funding is secured. Weaker when valued against the US dollar this morning the Euro currently trades at a rate of 1.0881.

Data releases

• AUD: No data today
• NZD: No data today
• JPY: Household Spending y/y, Tokyo Core CPI y/y, Retail Sales y/y
• GBP: Nationwide HPI m/m, MPC Member Haldane Speaks, BOE Carney Speaks, MPC Broadbent Speaks
• EUR: No data today
• USD: Final GDP q/q, Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, Fed Chair Yellen Speaks