Stronger US data and equities helps AUD consolidate

Australian Dollar:

The Australian dollar moved within a relatively tight trading range throughout Friday bouncing between 0.8745 and 0.8800. With little on the domestic economic calendar to drive direction the Aussie took its cues from offshore stimuli and found support in stronger US data. Improved consumer sentiment and new housing starts helped calm concerns the world’s largest economy is slowing in the face of stagnant global growth and a consolidation of non-safe haven assets directed trading. With little on the economic docket Monday attention turns to Tuesday’s RBA meeting minutes as the first key directional driver for the week ahead.  

• We expect a range today between 0.8650 – 0.8850

New Zealand Dollar:

The New Zealand dollar enjoyed a day of consolidation throughout trade on Friday as investors looked to reduce safe haven currency holdings on a stronger US data outlook. With little local data available to drive direction the Kiwi followed equities higher as better than expected earnings results and stronger consumer sentiment helped calm markets and temper recent volatility. Focus this week will be driven by Thursdays 3rd quarter CPI numbers with consumer confidence the main ticket on today’s docket.

• We expect a range today of 0.7800 – 0.8000

Great British Pound:

Sterling closed the week higher against its US counterpart breaking back above 1.60 after a mid-week dip below 1.59. The consolidation comes on the back of a weakening Greenback as investors re-think their USD positions in the face of slowing global growth and increasing volatility. The US led rally of the past 2 months appears to be easing as the expectations of a Fed rate hike are adjusted with the majority of investors looking to October 2015 as the point where the Federal Reserve will look to raise interest rates. With little on the economic calendar for Monday focus turns to Wednesday’s MPC meeting minutes for October.

• We expect a range today between 1.8200 - 1.8500 

Majors:

The Greenback closed lower for the 2nd consecutive week as markets and investors re-evaluate expectations for U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate activity. Despite stronger than expected consumer sentiment and stable building permit numbers leading a consolidation Friday volatility has taken hold of currency markets. Touching 8 month highs investors are questioning global growth prospects with Europe, China and Japan all showing signs of slowing while the ever increasing threat posed by the rampant spread of the Ebola Virus dampens risk appetite. Traders looked toward safe haven assets on Friday and launched the Japanese Yen to its strongest level since September 8 rising 0.7% to close the week. Concerns about slowing global growth and its impact on the world’s largest economy have forced the market to re-think major positions with many investors squaring their dollar long positions. With little against the economic calendar today focus turns to the key retail sales and home sales data toward the end of the week for further Dollar direction.

Data releases

• AUD: RBA Assistant Governor Kent Speaks
• NZD: Consumer Confidence and BNZ Business Performance Index.
• JPY: No Data
• GBP: Rightmove HPI
• EUR: German Buba Monthly Report, Current Account and German PPI m/m
• USD: FOMC Member Powell Speaks