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Currency market: USD/JPY, intervention vs trade balance

Brian Twomey Brian's Investment

If the question to BOJ intervention in USD/JPY was based on positive or negative trade values overall then the answer is a moot point as trade lacks any clues or comprehension to intervention.

The BOJ intervened on USD/JPY in October 2022 and dropped USD/JPY 500 pips. Yet overall trade values were positive for June and September 2023 and remained negative from September 2022 to June and September 2023. Where was the positive aspects to intervention at 150.00 USD/JPY to drop to 146.00 and trade today near 150.00 again.

Overall Trade to the Japanese involves 36 nations and a long list of Food and various products. Viewed from the United States for September 2023, the trade balance was positive at Exports = 1, 896, 284 Vs Imports = 941,211 or a + positive balance of 955, 073.

Would the BOJ intervene while running a positive trade balance with the United States. Why not intervene due to a September deficit Trade Balance to Oil Imports from Qatar and Oman. Qatar runs Exports = 15,553 Vs Imports 92,897 and minus 77,394. Oman runs minus 19,064 deficit to the Japanese at Exports = 12,518 Vs Imports 31,582.

Would the BOJ intervene to EUR/JPY while running a trade deficit to Germany at -20, 561 yet positive 137,498 to the Netherlands. Intervention to GBP/JPY while running + 68,294 positive trade balance to the UK.

From an overall trade perspective, the answer to intervention or not is not seen From a JPY context, Japan runs positive trade surpluses to the UK, United States, New Zealand and a deficit to Switzerland and Australia. Australia is extraordinarily high at minus 449, 763. ,

September 2023 vs September 2022

September 2023 = Exports 9, 198, 138 Vs Imports 9, 135, 696 and +62, 442. September 2022 = Exports = 8, 817, 668 Vs Imports 10,916, 860 and minus 2, 099, 192.

Trade balance 2018 to 2022

April to September 2018 = Exports 80,709, 887 Vs Imports 82,318, 969 and minus 1, 609, 082

2019 = Exports 75,878, 792 Vs Imports 77, 172, 427 and minus 1, 293, 635.

2020 = Exports 69,485, 414 Vs Imports 68, 486, 846 and minus 998, 568.

2021 = Exports 85,873, 695 Vs Imports 91, 460, 341 and minus 5, 586, 646.

2022 = Exports 99,226, 191 Vs Importts 120, 980, 211 and minus 21, 754, 620.

2023 Japan vs United States trade

Exports = 10,075, 330 Vs Imports 5, 588, 482 and + 4, 486, 848.

The Japanese ran massive overall trade deficits since 2018 yet never intervened.

Index values vs United States

From an Export / Import view to positive and negative values to the United States. 2023 = deficit August, May, March, February, 2022 Deficit = All 2022 and all 2021.

The Japanese release Trade Balance numbers in the 3rd week of every month for public consumption to cover 20 days of every month however the Japanese also release trade balance numbers for the first 10 days of every month.

The question to Intervention for USD/JPY in relation to trade is found by the United States Export and Import Index numbers Vs the Corporate Goods Price Index. The definitive answer is found exclusiively in the Corporate Goods Price Index V the secondary view to the Export / Import index values. Both aligned properly to the October 2022 intervention.

For a possible intervention to EUR/JPY or GBP/JPY then the Export/ Import index values is the only source.

Author

Brian Twomey

Brian's Investment

Brian Twomey is an independent trader and a prolific writer on trading, having authored over sixty articles in Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities and Investopedia.

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