Brian Twomey
Brian's Investment
EUR/USD target as reported for many weeks at 1.1044 traded to 1.1026. EUR/USD above 1.0943 allowed a higher EUR/USD and near target completion. EUR/USD currently trades 1.0943 to 1.1118. Next levels 1.1000, 1.1058 and 1.1116. Note EUR/USD 1.1116 and 1.1118. EUR/USD 1.1100's represent tough to break levels.
Overall EUR/USD vital levels: 1.0853, 1.0943, 1.1118, 1.1348 and 1.1595. Only minor changes to levels will be seen over next months.
GBP/USD Vital levels for next months: 1.2568, 1.2640, 1.2744, 1.2863, 1.2892, 1.3195 and 1.3250
USD/JPY is not only oversold but big break at 140.09 is close. Break of 140.09 targets next 139.25, 138.43 and 136.77.
Long term targets for USD/JPY and JPY cross pairs remain and targets held since December / January.
The BOJ Producer Price Index reported June 12 and is expected to report again tomorrow on July 12. The intervention definitive answer is found in tomorrow's release. The revelation as suspected is no intervention. The Japanese were successful by jawboning USD/JPY a few extra pips lower. Years ago during the days of regular BOJ interventions, jawboning was always number 1 priority then came intervention.
And no intervention because Trade will report exports in Japan's favor. We will also see no words from the Japanese to USD/JPY levels.
From the Tankan Survey, the 2 most vital export currencies and most important markets for Japan are USD/JPY and EUR/JPY. Forget the Regional stuff reported as USD/JPY and EUR/JPY and Europe far outpace trade than Japan Trade with China or regional nations.
JPY correlations
USD/JPY Vs EUR/USD at last report ran Correlations at +90%. Correlation at such high levels can't hold and explains USD/JPY's move rather than the big mouth Japanese. Today's Correlations run USD/JPY Vs EUR/USD at +77% and 20 point difference. More to go which means USD/JPY must continue to separate from EUR/USD.
USD/JPY vs EUR/JPY +98% and EUR/USD Vs EUR/JPY at +85%. Correlations reveal the JPY cross pair move is just getting started and has more moves to go.
Same story to GBP/JPY as USD/JPY Vs GBP/JPY Correlate at +99% and GBP/USD correlates to GBP/JPY at +98. The GBP/JPY move has barely began its downward trajectory. Correlations alone informs to not only current price situations but what's ahead.
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