Brian Twomey
Brian's Investment
Current USD is not only deeply overbought but its matched by deeply oversold Non-USD to include EM. EUR/USD from 1.1700 targets low to high 1.1800 easily, GBP/USD 1.3700's, AUD/USD target 0.7423, NZD/USD 0.7000's.
Best trade opportunities are located in EM USD beginning with USD/PLN from 3.9000's to target 400 pips lower to 1.8600's, USD/DKK targets 6.2800's from 6.3100's , USD/RON targets 1.1500's from 1.1800's, USD/HRK targets 1.3400's from 1.3900's.
Overall EM as USD is overbought by easily 3 to 400 pips and this places G28 currencies oversold and overbought by 150 to 200 pips as targets. USD/CAD still contains a long way to drop to target 1.2578 while USD/JPY and USD/CHF are hardly worth a click as USD/CAD is a far beter trade, moves well and pays more.
As written, GBP/JPY completed 600 pips from 155.00's, EUR/JPY, AUD/JPY, and NZD/JPY achieved 500 pips and 600 pips for CAD/JPY. CHF/JPY at low 119.00;s achieved 300 pips and contains another 400 pip drop to 115.00's. Clearly we are nailing FX as is normally done throughout the years.
USD/JPY massive supports to travel lower are located at 109.32 and 109.10. Watch those yields. The 10 year yield yesterday rise 5 points while USD/JPY traded 39 pips. Hardly worth the effort or energy to pen and paper.
Massive overbought USD/CHF must break 0.9141 to travel lower and short only strategy.
EUR/AUD target 1.5800's from current 1.6100's while continuation to short GBP/AUD highs. Completed 4 GBP/AUD trades in the past 1 1/2 weeks and running nearly 400 pips and overall target to mid 1.8500's.
GBP/USD higher when EUR/GBP breaks below 0.8612.
EUR/USD overall contains a long only strategy ECB or no ECB until at least mid 1.1800's trade and no matter how long it takes. The ECB sees traders coming as they prepare their script. They just might offer 50 pips and in one direction, a dam day trade.
Overall, USD and non-USD currencies trade at extremes and this will take time to correct.
Trading currencies and other financial instruments carries a degree of loss and possible loss of entire investments. Please managed your own risks, stop loss, and margins requirements.
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Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD extends losses toward 1.1100 on increased dovish ECB bets
EUR/USD accelerates decline toward 1.1100 in European trading on Friday. Softer French and Spanish inflation data ramped up Oct ECB rate cut bets, weighing on the Euro. However, the downside could be cushioned by a wobbly US Dollar, as US PCE inflation looms.
USD/JPY slides 1% toward 143.00 as Ishiba wins LDP leadership race
USD/JPY is seeing a fresh sell-off toward 143.00 in the European session on Friday. The pair loses over 300 pips, as the Japanese Yen rebounds on Shigeru Ishiba's win in the LDP leadership run-off. Sanae Takaichi, who favored keeping interest rates lower, was expected to win the race.
Gold price pulls back from record high ahead of US PCE Price Index, bullish bias remains
Gold price attracts some sellers on the last day of the week and retreats further from the all-time peak, around the $2,685-2,686 region touched on Thursday. The downtick is sponsored by the emergence of some US Dollar buying, which tends to undermine demand for the commodity.
US core PCE set to show continued disinflation trend, reinforcing Federal Reserve easing cycle
The core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index is seen rising 0.2% MoM and 2.7% YoY in August. Markets have already priced in near 50 bps of easing in the next two Federal Reserve meetings. A firm PCE result is unlikely to move the Fed’s stance on policy.
RBA widely expected to keep key interest rate unchanged amid persisting price pressures
The Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to continue bucking the trend adopted by major central banks of the dovish policy pivot, opting to maintain the policy for the seventh consecutive meeting on Tuesday.
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