Brian Twomey
Brian's Investment
Japan Call Rates trade today -0.019 and last week traded -0.008 to -0.013. The weekly range traded -0.001 to today's -0.019. For the past 6 days, Call Rates traded from, 0.92 lows to 0.9920. or 7 points. Call rates rose since Tuesday April 12th.
The BOJ interest rates assisted to USD/JPY rise. In comparison to USD and Fed rates, every rise to Call Rates trades exactly 4 pips higher to USD/JPY. From this very basic to interest and exchange rates, the BOJ added a minimum of 28 pips today and much more to take this story to its conclusion.
A higher USD/JPY is a positive to exports but import prices suffer such as much required OIL for the Japanese economy to function.
If the BOJ raised headline interest rates to -0.15 from -0.10 then USD/JPY is added 300 pips higher to targets from 138 to current 135. At 135 is not necessarily an exchange rate that trades but it serves as the top rate in relation to interest rates.
The BOJ's solution to exchange rates if a concern exists is to lower headline for a drop to USD/JPY. The best approach is eliminate negative interest rates and go positive. USD/JPY would stop dead in its tracks to further rises and drop like a rock as positive interest rates works perfectly to Fed rates and would normalize USD/JPY again.
Japan's real GDP turned positive for the past 2 quarters at 1.6 and 1.3 but negative from January 2021 to January 2019. Real GDP in Japan hasn't achieved a 2 handle since 2014.
Meanwhile the gang that can't ever shoot straight applied Yield Control, stimulus, Inflation targets then raises daily interest rates to allow USD/JPY to rise.
To understand the Dr.'s of destruction that we call the BOJ, view all past economic experiments from the BOJ since the 1900's. Every experiment and every economic road was a complete and total failure. The BOJ is to dangerous to be called a central bank and apply central banking nor should they be trusted.
USD/JPY above big breaks 128.33, 129.21, 130.10, 130.98, 131.87. Recall yesterday's 9 year cycle from 90.00 to 120. The next cycle is expected down and the first target is 120.00's.
GBP/JPY at 168 and 169 targets is close. The trend began at 147.00's and GBP/JPY rose 2000 pips. The first drop to USD/JPY and GBP/JPY will hit hard and fast.
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The composite PMI dropped from 50 to 48.1, once more stressing growth concerns for the eurozone. Hard data has actually come in better than expected recently – so ahead of the December meeting, the ECB has to figure out whether this is the PMI crying wolf or whether it should take this signal seriously. We think it’s the latter.
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