Could the US official jobs data also disappoint for the second month in a row? [Video]

Risk appetite got another hit yesterday after the US ADP report printed a weaker-than-expected number and revived the worries that the US official jobs data could also disappoint for the second month in a row.

Many investors believe that today’s job figures could be pivotal in determining whether the Fed will cut rates by 25 or 50 basis points at its meeting later this month. Why this data is so important? Above all, it is because the Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that a further weakness in the jobs market is undesired. That’s obviously a good reason for investors to put a lot of weight on the jobs data.

But from a theoretical perspective, this month’s jobs data is especially significant as in July, the Sahm’s Rule was triggered, and the JOLTS report showed the vacancy rate fell below the key 4.6% threshold, which could push unemployment to 4.5%, according to Fed’s Waller’s research paper. So investors are holding their breath and bracing for a potentially higher stress and volatility before the weekly closing bell.