Core CPI remains 'stickly', PMI readings improve

Notes/observations

- March begins roaring like a lion with several more stock market indices hitting record highs (Japan, Australia). Feb saw S&P500 and Nasdaq close at record levels as inflation seen moving back to target levels.

- Focus turns to China’s National People's Congress meeting next week its annual announcement on key economic targets.

Asia

- China Feb Manufacturing PMI (Govt Official) registered its 5th month of contraction (49.1 v 49.0e).

- China Feb Caixin PMI Manufacturing registered its 4th month of expansion (50.9 v 50.7e).

- Australia Feb Final PMI Manufacturing confirms move back into contraction (47.8 v 47.7 prelim).

- Japan Feb Final PMI Manufacturing confirms 9th month of contraction (47.2 v 47.2 prelim).

- Japan Jan Jobless Rate: 2.4% v 2.4% prior.

- South Korea Feb Trade Balance: -$4.3B v -$2.0Be; Exports Y/Y: 4.8% v 1.4%e; Imports Y/Y: -13.1% v -11.7%e.

- New Zealand Feb ANZ Consumer Confidence: 94.5 v 93.6 prior.

- BOJ Gov Ueda stated that needed more data to confirm virtuous cycle, could not yet see inflation target being met.

Europe

- ECB's Panetta (Italy, dove) stated that inflation was falling faster than expected.

- Portugal Fin Min Medina commented that various EU countries were having a very strong slowdown; risks of leaving the situation as it is were greater than starting a process of reducing interest rates.

Americas

- Senate passed bill to avert partial govt shutdown secures votes to pass (as expected).

- President Biden stated that Congress must do its job and pass full-year funding bills.

- Fed's Williams (voter) stated that did not see sense of urgency to cut rates but expected easing to begin later this year.

- Fed's Mester (voter) stated that still expected 3 rate cuts in 2024 after new inflation reading. PCE data did not change calculus on policy rate decision.

- Fed's Daly (voter in 2024) noted that had policy in a good place and could cut if needed. Fed officials were ready to lower rates as data demanded us to do but there’ saw no urgent need to cut given the strength of the economy.

Speakers/fixed income/FX/commodities/erratum

Equities

Indices [Stoxx600 +0.50% at 497.06, FTSE +0.84% at 7,694.17, DAX +0.65% at 17,793.05, CAC-40 +0.11% at 7,935.87, IBEX-35 +0.59% at 10,060.50, FTSE MIB +0.98% at 32,899.00, SMI +0.54% at 11,500.90, S&P 500 Futures +0.10%].

Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European indices open higher across the board but faded some of the initial gains through the early hours of trading; improved sentiment being attributed to slowing inflation rates on both sides of the Atlantic; among sectors leading to the upside are technology and real estate; materials and financials and main lagging sectors; ITV to sell its stake in BritBox to the BBC; Believe discloses receipt of improved expression of interest; Wincanton recommends GXO offer; earnings expected in the upcoming US session include EchoStar, RadNet and Plug Power.

Equities

- Consumer discretionary: Ryanair [RYA.IE] -1.0% (cuts traffic over delayed Boeing jets), Believe [BLV.FR] +5.5% (new potential offer), ITV [ITV.UK] +14.5% (divestment), Valeo [FR.FR] -2.0% (earnings).

- Financials: Aegon [AGN.NL] -4.0% (earnings; re-elects CEO).

- Materials: IMCD [IMCD.NL] +9.0% (earnings).

- Industrials: Daimler Truck [DTG.DE] +13.5% (earnings; raises dividend), Leonardo [LDO.IT] +4.0% (earnings).

- Technology: FD Technologies [FDP.UK] -32.0% (trading update).

- Telecom: Pearson [PSON.UK] +3.0% (earnings).

Speakers

- ECB’s Holzmann (Austria, ultrahawk) stated that ECB could not rush to decision on rates.

- SNB Chairman Jordan to step down end of Sept 2024.

Currencies/fixed income

- A busy data-filled session did little to dent the USD. Dealers noted that the greenback could stay strong during spring as expectations for a soft landing-fueled a narrative of US economic outperformance among its peers.

- EUR/USD staying above the 1.08 level as various EU PMI Manufacturing readings improved. Dealers noted that some stickiness in core readings saw June interest-rate cut bets by the ECB were no longer fully pricing in a cut. Week saw a repricing of ECB rate cut expectations has pushed EUR yields sharply higher,

- USD/JPY above 150.50 as BOJ Gov Ueda stated that needed more data to confirm virtuous cycle, could not yet see inflation target being met.

Economic data

- (NL) Netherlands Feb Preliminary CPI Y/Y: 2.8% v 3.2% prior.

- (NL) Netherlands Feb Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.9% v 1.1%e; Y/Y: 2.7% v 2.8%e.

- (RU) Russia Feb Manufacturing PMI: 54.7 v 52.0e (22nd month of expansion).

- (NL) Netherlands Feb Manufacturing PMI: 49.3 v 48.9 prior (18th month of contraction).

- (UK) Feb Nationwide House Price Index M/M: 0.7% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 1.2% v 0.7%e.

- (TR) Turkey Feb Manufacturing PMI: 50.2 v 49.2 prior (1st expansion in 8 months).

- (CH) Swiss Jan Real Retail Sales Y/Y: +0.3% v -0.1% prior.

- (SE) Sweden Feb PMI Manufacturing: 49.0 v 48.4e (17th straight contraction).

- (HU) Hungary Dec Final Trade Balance: -€0.3B v -€0.2B prelim.

- (TH) Thailand Feb Business Sentiment Index: 48.8 v 48.0 prior.

- (TH) Thailand Feb Foreign Reserves w/e Feb 23rd: $222.4B v $121.5B prior.

- (CN) Weekly Shanghai copper inventories (SHFE): 214.5K v 181.3K tons prior.

- (CZ) Czech Q4 Preliminary GDP (2nd of 3 readings) Q/Q: 0.2% v 0.2% advance; Y/Y: -0.2% v -0.2% advance.

- (AT) Austria Feb Preliminary CPI M/M: +0.7% v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: 4.3% v 4.5% prior.

- (HU) Hungary Feb Manufacturing PMI: 52.2 v 49.0e (moved back into expansion).

- (PL) Poland Feb Manufacturing PMI: 47.9 v 47.0e (22nd straight contraction).

- (RU) Russia Narrow Money Supply w/e Feb 23rd (RUB): 18.08T v 18.09T prior.

- (ES) Spain Feb PMI Manufacturing: 51.5 v 49.8e (1st expansion in 11 months and highest since June 2022).

- (CH) Swiss Feb PMI Manufacturing: 44.0 v 44.3e (14th straight contraction); PMI Services: 53.0 v 54.6 prior.

- (CZ) Czech Feb PMI Manufacturing: 44.3 v 42.5e (21st straight contraction).

- (HK) Hong Kong Jan Retail Sales Value Y/Y: 0.9% v 6.9%e; Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: -1.2% v +3.3%e.

- (IT) Italy Feb PMI Manufacturing: 48.7 v 49.1e (11th straight contraction).

- (NG) Nigeria Feb Nigeria PMI: 51.0 v 54.5 prior.

- (FR) France Feb Final Manufacturing PMI: 47.1 v 46.8 prelim (confirmed 9th straight contraction).

- (DE) Germany Feb Final Manufacturing PMI: 42.5 v 42.3 prelim (confirmed 20th straight contraction).

- (EU) Euro Zone Feb Final Manufacturing PMI: 46.5 v 46.1 prelim (confirmed 20th straight contraction).

- (GR) Greece Feb Manufacturing PMI: 55.7 v 54.7 prior (13th month of expansion).

- (NO) Norway Feb PMI Manufacturing: 51.9 v 50.7 prior (4th month of expansion).

- (ZA) South Africa Feb Manufacturing PMI: 51.7 v 46.5e.

- (IT) Italy Jan Unemployment Rate: 7.2% v 7.2%e.

- (NO) Norway Feb Unemployment Rate: 2.1% v 2.1%e; Unemployment Rate (unadj): 1.9% v 1.9%e.

- (UK) Feb Final Manufacturing PMI: 47.5 v 47.1e (confirmed 19th consecutive contraction).

- (EU) Euro Zone Feb Advance CPI Estimate Y/Y: 2.6% v 2.5%e; CPI Core Y/Y: 3.1% v 2.9%e.

- (EU) Euro Zone Jan Unemployment Rate: 6.4% v 6.4%e.

- (BE) Belgium Jan Unemployment Rate: 5.5% v 5.7% prior.

- (IT) Italy Feb Preliminary CPI M/M: 0.1% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 0.8% v 1.0%e.

- (IT) Italy Feb Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.1% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 0.9% v 1.0%e.

- (CY) Cyprus Q4 Final GDP Q/Q: 0.6% v 0.8% prelim; Y/Y: 2.1% v 2.1% prelim.

Fixed income issuance

- (ZA) South Africa sold total ZAR vs. ZAR1.0B indicated in I/L 2033, 2043 and 2050 Bonds.

Looking ahead

- (ZA) South Africa Feb Naamsa Vehicle Sales Y/Y: No est v -3.8% prior.

- (IT) Italy Feb Budget Balance: No est v -€5.5B prior.

- (US) Feb Total Vehicle Sales Seasonally Adj Rate (SAAR): No est v 15.00M prior.

- (RO) Romania Feb International Reserves: No est v $67.7B prior.

- 05:25 (EU) Daily ECB Liquidity Stats.

- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Jan Retail Sales M/M: No est v 5.1% prior; Y/Y: No est v -0.1% prior.

- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Jan Industrial Production M/M: No est v -0.8% prior; Y/Y: No est v -5.0% prior.

- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Q4 Final GDP Q/Q: No est v -0.7% prelim; Y/Y: No est v -3.4% prelim.

- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Q4 Current Account Balance: No est v €20.8B prior.

- 06:00 (IT) Italy 2023 Annual GDP Y/Y: No est v 3.7% prior.

- 06:00 (UK) DMO to sell £5.5B in 1-month, 3-month and 6-month bills (£0.5B, £2.5B and £2.5B respectively).

- 06:00 (BE) Belgium Debt Agency (BDA) to sell Bonds through Ori Auction.

- 06:30 (CL) Chile Jan Economic Activity Index (Monthly GDP) M/M: +0.7%e v -1.1% prior; Y/Y: +0.6%e v -1.0% prior.

- 06:30 (IN) India Forex Reserve w/e Feb 23rd: No est v $616.1B prior.

- 6:30 (IN) India announces upcoming bill issuance (held on Wed).

- 07:00 (BR) Brazil Q4 GDP Q/Q: 0.1%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 2.2%e v 2.0% prior; GDP 4 Quarters Accumulated: 3.0%e v 3.1% prior.

- 08:00 (BR) Brazil Feb Manufacturing PMI: No est v 52.8 prior.

- 08:00 (CZ) Czech Feb Budget Balance (CZK): No est v -26.0B prior.

- 08:00 (UK) Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index.

- 08:00 (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) announces upcoming bond issuance.

- 09:00 (UK) BOE’s Pill (chief economist).

- 09:30 (CA) Canada Feb Manufacturing PMI: No est v 48.3 prior.

- 09:45 (US) Feb Final S&P Manufacturing PMI: 51.5e v 51.5 prelim.

- 10:00 (US) Feb Final University of Michigan Confidence: 79.6e v 79.6 prelim.

- 10:00 (US) Feb ISM Manufacturing: 49.5e v 49.1 prior.

- 10:00 (US) Jan Construction Spending M/M: 0.2%e v 0.9% prior.

- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Feb Manufacturing PMI: No est v 50.2 prior.

- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Jan Total Remittances: $4.7Be v $5.5B prior.

- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Central Bank Economist Survey.

- 10:00 (PE) Peru Feb CPI M/M: 0.2%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 2.9%e v 3.0% prior.

- 10:00 (CO) Colombia Feb PMI Manufacturing: No est v 55.1 prior.

- 10:15 (US) Fed’s Waller.

- 11:00 (US) Feb Kansas City Fed Services Activity: No est v -2 prior.

- 11:00 (EU) Potential sovereign ratings after European close.

- 12:00 (IT) Italy Feb New Car Registrations Y/Y: No est v 10.6% prior.

- 12:15 (US) Fed’s Bostic.

- 13:00 (US) Weekly Baker Hughes Rig Count.

- 13:00 (MX) Mexico Feb IMEF Manufacturing Index: 51.1e v 51.6 prior; Non-Manufacturing Index: 51.8e v 52.0 prior.

- 13:30 (US) Fed's Daly participates in Panel Discussion with Fed's Schmid.

- 15:30 (US) Fed’s Kugler.