Copper prices have been in a downward trend since peaking in May 2024. Since May 21st, 2024, the metal has lost nearly 25% of its value, correcting the strong rally that began in October 2023. This correction appears to be forming a three-wave structure, indicating that there may be further downside before the long-term uptrend resumes.

Copper daily chart analysis

On the daily chart, copper is likely undergoing a three-wave decline from the May 2024 high, labeled as waves a-b-c of the cycle degree, which is expected to complete wave (IV) of the supercycle degree. Waves a and b of the cycle degree have already been completed, and the price is currently correcting upwards for wave b. Within this wave b, the first sub-wave has finished, and the price is now falling in wave c of (IV). As wave c nears completion, approaching the lows seen in February 2024, a new rally could commence for wave (V), continuing the long-term bullish trend that began in March 2020, likely evolving into a diagonal structure.

Copper four-hour chart analysis

The H4 chart offers a closer look at waves a, b, and c of (IV). The ongoing wave c of (IV) is completing an impulse structure. Currently, the price is in wave 5 (circled) of c of (IV), after which a resurgence is anticipated. The decline may continue toward the 3.75 level before the upward trend resumes.

Conclusion

Copper is in the final stages of its corrective phase, with the potential for further downside before the long-term uptrend resumes. Traders should watch for the completion of wave c of (IV) around the 3.85-3.75 price zone, which could present a buying opportunity as the market prepares to shift back into a bullish phase for wave (V).

Copper Elliott Wave technical analysis [Video]

Author

Peter Mathers

TradingLounge

Peter Mathers started actively trading in 1982. He began his career at Hoei and Shoin, a Japanese futures trading company.

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