US Consumer Confidence Preview: Moderation is more than enough

US consumer confidence expected to moderate in November.
October score was the best in 18 years.

Joseph Trevisani FXStreet

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for November will be released on Tuesday November 27th at 10 am EST, 15:00 GMT on Tuesday.

Forecast – Confidence to remain strong

This American consumer sentiment index is expected to dip slightly in November to 135.5 from October’s reading of 137.9 which was the highest since September 2000.

The US economy has provided plentiful reasons over the past year for consumers to feel expansive heading into the holiday shopping season. Unemployment is at a five decade low, wage compensation has returned to pre-crash levels, inflation remains low and last year’s tax reform has provide consumers with extra spending cash.

The Present Situation Index from the Conference Board which assesses consumers' view of current business and labor market conditions rose in October to 172.8 from 169.4. The Expectations Index, based on the near-term outlook, climbed to 114.6 last month from 112.5 in September.

The percentage of consumers noting 'good' business conditions rose to 40.5% from 39.9% in October while those finding "bad" conditions fell to 9.2% from 9.6%. Jobs were said to be "plentiful" by 45.9% in October over September's 44.1%. Those saying jobs are "hard to get" fell to 13.2% last month from 14.1% in September.

The percentage of consumers expecting an improvement in their wages rose to 24.7% in October from 22.5% prior. Those expecting a drop in compensation increased to 8.5% from 7.6%

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey is a long running assessment of the state of the US consumer which began in 1967 and is conducted by Nielsen for the New York based non-profit business membership and research organization.

Reuters

Author

Joseph Trevisani

FXStreet

Joseph Trevisani began his thirty-year career in the financial markets at Credit Suisse in New York and Singapore where he worked for 12 years as an interbank currency trader and trading desk manager.

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