Details - Wave A pushed farther away from 200. May push further higher. The 200 major level could provide support for wave B pullback that should follow the end of A. Not much has changed from the last update.

As April 2024 commenced, Coffee broke out of a range spanning over three months, reaching its highest price point since October 2022. Reflecting on the past, the commodity has surged by over 42% since hitting a low in October 2023. With this breakout, the immediate outlook for Coffee appears favorable for buyers. Currently priced at $206, there's potential for further gains in the upcoming weeks. This blog post aims to analyze how traders can navigate this trend before its conclusion.

Analyzing the daily timeframe, the rally from October 2023 represents the third leg of a medium-term bullish correction initiated in January 2023. This correction forms a double three (zigzag) pattern labeled as wave W-X-Y (circled in blue). The upward movement from October 2023 delineates wave Y, which is anticipated to extend further with its third leg, labeled as wave (Y). The preceding wave (X) corresponds to the three-month range observed, characterized as a contracting triangle. Consequently, we expect to witness at least a 3-wave rally for wave (Y). Currently, the initial upside swing is underway, to be followed by a dip swing before another rally swing for the third leg. Employing a 'buy the dip' strategy would be most advantageous in this scenario.

Transitioning to the H4 timeframe, we observe the subdivision of wave (Y) into waves A-B-C. Wave A has already breached the 200 major level; however, confirmation of its completion is pending. It's imperative to await the completion of wave A and the emergence of wave B, while closely monitoring how the price behaves around the 200 major level. Once wave B concludes, traders can anticipate tracing wave C higher. Therefore, the ideal trade strategy is to exercise patience, awaiting the culmination of wave B before initiating positions in anticipation of the subsequent upward movement denoted by wave C. By adhering to these guidelines, traders can effectively navigate the Coffee market and capitalize on the ongoing bullish trend before its culmination.

Technical analyst: Sanmi Adeagbo.

Coffee Elliott Wave analysis [Video]

Author

Peter Mathers

TradingLounge

Peter Mathers started actively trading in 1982. He began his career at Hoei and Shoin, a Japanese futures trading company.

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