Cocoa Elliott Wave analysis
After reaching an all-time high of 11,722 in April 2024, Cocoa prices have entered a corrective phase, with the market still within this consolidation period. Since May 2024, Cocoa has traded predominantly below the 10,000 mark, suggesting that the ongoing bearish correction could extend further. It is anticipated that this corrective cycle will continue below the August 2024 low, possibly dropping toward the 5,000 level or lower, before the long-term bullish trend resumes.
On the daily chart, a double zigzag corrective pattern is becoming evident from the April high. The first leg of the correction, wave W, concluded on August 8th, with the current upward movement representing wave X. Once wave X completes, wave Y could follow, potentially pushing prices toward the 5,000 level or even lower. Unless Cocoa prices rebound significantly and approach the 11,000 level, the downside scenario remains the most probable, suggesting the correction is not yet complete.
In the H4 chart, wave X appears to have finished forming its own double zigzag pattern. As prices approach the wave x (circled) low at 6,850, the likelihood of wave Y commencing increases. A break below this level would likely confirm the start of wave Y, followed by a breach of the 6,600 level, where wave W previously ended.
In conclusion, Cocoa's corrective phase seems far from over, with the potential for further declines toward 5,000 or below. The market is still within a larger bearish cycle that began after the April 2024 peak. While a strong rebound could change the outlook, the price action suggests that the corrective structure will likely continue to play out. A break below 6,850 would be a key signal confirming the start of wave Y, accelerating the move toward the completion of this corrective phase.
Cocoa Elliott Wave technical analysis [Video]
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