China economic and FX outlook: Scenario analysis

Wells Fargo Research Team Wells Fargo

Summary

With China particularly sensitive to changes in U.S. trade and tariff policy, we find value in laying out scenarios for how China's economy and currency could evolve going forward. In this report, we outline the policy assumptions underpinning our base case for China GDP growth and the renminbi. We also offer views on how China's economy and currency could perform in a more hostile and retaliatory trade war, but also in a scenario where the U.S. and China reach a more benign “Phase 2” trade deal.

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Wells Fargo Research Team

Wells Fargo

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