Catalan Elections Preview: Long-winding road to Independence for Catalonia

• Separatist forces are expected to win
• 8 pm are first exit polls expected

When Catalonia, a northern region of Spain, declared the independence referendum and was devoted to pushing its independence forward, the herds of policemen from Madrid and other regions of Spain flooded the streets of Barcelona.

All arriving on a silly looking-Disney cartoon painted-ferry.

The referendum on October 1 turned out to be a mess with signs of street violence and the Declaration of Independence that followed weeks after was soon overrun by the central government in Madrid.

Now, Catalans are set to choose their future once again as polls open tomorrow, December 21.

The tactics behind calling the early elections as soon as possible are based on assumption that earlier the election, the shorter the time for separatists o join forces. And the strategy worked well.  The PDeCAT of Catalan ex-president Carles Puigdemont and his former coalition party ERC failed to set up a joint list as they had done prior the last elections in 2015. Even without joined forces, both pro-separatist political parties are expected to win, although absolute majority remains the open question.

Catalonia is set to become world media hot topic once again at around 8 pm tomorrow as first exit polls are expected to be published.

Latest polls

Opinion polls conducted last week showed separatist parties gaining 67, possibly 68 seats in 135 seats Catalonian parliament. In elections back in 2015, separatist political parties gained 72 seats in regional parliament. With 68 seats necessary for an absolute majority, it is going to be a very close call.

On the other hand, the unionist, or royalist forces are unlikely to form either simple or absolute majority.

If none of the sides is able to form a majority, left-wing CatComú-Podem is set to become a decisive player with much softer separatist stance and softer language toward the central government in Madrid.

Based on current opinion polls, whatever the government, even the one with separatists forming a minority government, is unlikely to repeat the late October scenario of unilateral independence declaration.

The independence push from the separatist political parties is unlikely to recede anytime soon. The history of Catalans striving for independence is long and bloody. Nevertheless, given the cosmopolitan character of Barcelona, the Catalan capital, it is unlikely for separatists to form an absolute majority at the moment and Catalan independence looks more likely to be a form of fiscal Independencia. It looks like there is a long-winding road to Independence for Catalonia.