Erste Bank Research Team
Erste Bank
On the radar
-
Producer prices in Slovenia declined by -1.3% y/y in October.
-
In Croatia unemployment rate increased marginally to 4.7% in October, while real wage growth remained solid at 12.8% y/y in September.
-
In Hungary the wage growth landed at 12.5% y/y in September.
-
Today, Slovenia publishes wage growth data.
Economic developments
We discussed shortly the development of the car registrations in the CEE region year-to-date, yesterday. There are quite substantial discrepancies between performance in Croatia and Poland as opposed to Czechia or Slovakia. These discrepancies in car registrations’ development goes hand in hand with economic development. Croatia and Poland grew at the strongest pace among CEE countries (excluding Serbia that is not covered with car registrations data). Further, consumption growth is also very solid in these two countries. On the other hand, private consumption growth in Czechia and Slovakia close to 1% on average in the first half of the year is way weaker compared to Romania, Poland or Croatia. The other factor that may be of importance is the growth momentum i.e. whether private consumption has been accelerating or decelerating. Finally, Car purchases belong to durable goods’ consumption that will be related to the overall financial conditions of the households as well as their propensity to consume as opposed to the. propensity to save. The development in the EU as a whole will be strongly influenced by the underperformance of German industry and economy.
Market movements
Global developments have been driving the FX market in the region. Russian forces have fired a new intermediate-range ballistic missile at Ukraine, in response to Kyiv’s use this week of US and UK-made missiles in attacks on targets in Russia. In the aftermath, we have seen CEE currencies weakening with EURHUF moving above 410. On the bond market, the yields have moved slightly down since the beginning of the week apart from Romania that enters the election period. Over upcoming three consecutive Sundays Romanians will go to cast a vote. The first round of presidential elections is due 24 November with the runoff two weeks afterwards, and the general elections are scheduled in the Sunday between them.
This document is intended as an additional information source, aimed towards our customers. It is based on the best resources available to the authors at press time. The information and data sources utilised are deemed reliable, however, Erste Bank Sparkassen (CR) and affiliates do not take any responsibility for accuracy nor completeness of the information contained herein. This document is neither an offer nor an invitation to buy or sell any securities.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD recovers from two-year lows, stays below 1.0450
EUR/USD recovers modestly and trades above 1.0400 after setting a two-year low below 1.0350 following the disappointing PMI data from Germany and the Eurozone on Friday. Market focus shifts to November PMI data releases from the US.
GBP/USD falls to six-month lows below 1.2550, eyes on US PMI
GBP/USD extends its losses for the third successive session and trades at a fresh fix-month low below 1.2550 on Friday. Disappointing PMI data from the UK weigh on Pound Sterling as investors await US PMI data releases.
Gold price refreshes two-week high, looks to build on momentum beyond $2,700 mark
Gold price hits a fresh two-week top during the first half of the European session on Friday, with bulls now looking to build on the momentum further beyond the $2,700 mark. This marks the fifth successive day of a positive move and is fueled by the global flight to safety amid persistent geopolitical tensions stemming from the intensifying Russia-Ukraine war.
S&P Global PMIs set to signal US economy continued to expand in November
The S&P Global preliminary PMIs for November are likely to show little variation from the October final readings. Markets are undecided on whether the Federal Reserve will lower the policy rate again in December.
Eurozone PMI sounds the alarm about growth once more
The composite PMI dropped from 50 to 48.1, once more stressing growth concerns for the eurozone. Hard data has actually come in better than expected recently – so ahead of the December meeting, the ECB has to figure out whether this is the PMI crying wolf or whether it should take this signal seriously. We think it’s the latter.
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads
VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.