Brent crude oil prices are witnessing a moderate rise as the week begins, with the cost per barrel currently near $78.40. This upward trend is primarily influenced by the evolving outlook on energy demand. Recent macroeconomic data have cast some doubts on future demand, somewhat offsetting factors previously buoying prices, such as tensions in the Middle East.
Currently, Brent crude seems poised for a phase of consolidation within a specific price range. Despite some existing downward pressures, the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden are maintaining a significant risk premium in crude oil prices. Market dynamics are also reflected in the backwardation between the current Brent price and its six-month futures, suggesting an anticipation of potential future oil supply limitations.
Brent Crude Oil technical analysis
The H4 chart for Brent indicates a recent rise to $79.74, followed by a correction to $78.06. It's likely that a tight consolidation range will form above this level today. A break above this range could signal a growth trajectory towards $80.00, and potentially higher to $81.84 as a local target. The MACD indicator, with its signal line positioned above zero, supports the likelihood of continued growth.
On the H1 chart, a correction phase appears to have concluded. The price may start ascending towards $79.79. Following this, a new consolidation phase around this level is anticipated. An upward breakout from this range could propel the price further to $81.84. This outlook is reinforced by the Stochastic oscillator, indicating a signal line trajectory from above 20, aiming towards 80.
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