|

Big week ahead for commodities with FOMC, ECB and inflation data in focus – What's next? [Video]

June is certainly shaping up to be an incredibly profitable month with hotter-than-expected economic data, stubbornly high inflation and the risks of stagflation now emerging as the three biggest macro themes driving the Commodity markets.

This week is all about macroeconomics with trader’s attention firmly focused on a string of hotly anticipated data releases including U.S Consumer Price and Producer Price Inflation figures, as well the outcome of The Federal Reserve and European Central Bank’s interest rate decisions.

Taking front and centre stage will undoubtedly be the Federal Reserve’s Monetary Policy Meeting on June 13-14.

Over the past 16 months, the Federal Reserve has rolled out their most aggressive interest rate hiking campaign ever in history.

And so far, their efforts to cool the economy and lower inflation has barely made a dent. Inflation is proving resilient and there is a risk that it will remain high even as growth sags.

While they may not wish to admit it, conclusive evidence shows that the task of lowering inflation has become a difficult challenge for policymakers – signalling that an era of stagflation could be on the horizon.

In the lead-up to their Policy Meeting this week, several top Fed officials have endorsed the need to continue raising interest higher as ‘insurance’ against inflation. A move that would lift the federal funds rate to the highest level since January 2001, up from nearly zero early last year.

Those odds surged after Non-Farm Payrolls data showed, the U.S. economy continued to defy expectations by adding 339,000 new jobs in May – more than twice the expectations – prompting criticism that Fed’s ongoing efforts to slow down the economy and tame inflation is failing to have the desired effect.

With the Fed's credibility at stake and inflation still well above their 2% target, there is now huge pressure on policymakers to “stay the course” in their fight against stubbornly high inflation.

One of the biggest macro releases that traders will be watching out for is U.S Consumer Price Inflation data, due on Tuesday — one day before the Fed's rate announcement. Ultimately, the outcome of this data will either make the Fed's rate decision a lot easier or a lot more difficult.

Extraordinary times create extraordinary opportunities. Regardless of how upcoming events unfold, the Fed’s next move is guaranteed to move the markets significantly, bringing with it massive opportunities to generate huge profits fast!

Where are prices heading next? Watch The Commodity Report now, for my latest price forecasts and predictions:

Author

Phil Carr

Phil Carr

The Gold & Silver Club

Phil is the co-founder and Head of Trading at The Gold & Silver Club, an international Commodities Trading Firm specializing in Metals, Energies and Soft Commodities.

More from Phil Carr
Share:

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD flirts with daily highs, retargets 1.1900

EUR/USD regains upside traction, returning to the 1.1880 zone and refocusing its attention to the key 1.1900 barrier. The pair’s slight gains comes against the backdrop of a humble decline in the US Dollar as investors continue to assess the latest US CPI readings and the potential Fed’s rate path.

GBP/USD remains well bid around 1.3650

GBP/USD maintains its upside momentum in place, hovering around daily highs near 1.3650 and setting aside part of the recent three-day drop. Cable’s improved sentiment comes on the back of the Greenback’s  irresolute price action, while recent hawkish comments from the BoE’s Pill also collaborate with the uptick.

Gold clings to gains just above $5,000/oz

Gold is reclaiming part of the ground lost on Wednesday’s marked decline, as bargain-hunters keep piling up and lifting prices past the key $5,000 per troy ounce. The precious metal’s move higher is also underpinned by the slight pullback in the US Dollar and declining US Treasury yields across the curve.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP in choppy price action, weighed down by falling institutional interest 

Bitcoin's upside remains largely constrained amid weak technicals and declining institutional interest. Ethereum trades sideways above $1,900 support with the upside capped below $2,000 amid ETF outflows.

Week ahead – Data blitz, Fed Minutes and RBNZ decision in the spotlight

US GDP and PCE inflation are main highlights, plus the Fed minutes. UK and Japan have busy calendars too with focus on CPI. Flash PMIs for February will also be doing the rounds. RBNZ meets, is unlikely to follow RBA’s hawkish path.

Ripple Price Forecast: XRP potential bottom could be in sight

Ripple edges up above the intraday low of $1.35 at the time of writing on Friday amid mixed price actions across the crypto market. The remittance token failed to hold support at $1.40 the previous day, reflecting risk-off sentiment amid a decline in retail and institutional sentiment.