Benefit of the doubt: Consumer confidence and elections

Summary

Despite widespread expectation for the U.S. economy to be in recession in 2024, that fate has been avoided thanks to a resilient U.S. consumer. Yet it is difficult to square this undaunted spending with consumer confidence and sentiment readings that are lackluster at best. How can economic conditions be adequately supportive of actual spending but insufficient to imbue a greater degree of confidence?

Perhaps it has to do with the fact that while inflation has come down, prices themselves largely have not. It may also have to do with a labor market in which the jobless rate remains near all-time lows, but the signing bonuses have mostly gone away and record wage growth has largely cooled. Yet, we would be remiss not to acknowledge the upcoming general election in November. Politics aside, households face uncertainty over the presidency, the makeup of Congress and what those outcomes imply for future policy paths. In previous general election years, this has resulted in declining consumer confidence measures in the months leading up to the election in November and a trend recovery in the months following an election. Should we expect the same this year?

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