Basis trade and tariff war disconnect

The EUR/USD pair kicks off the new week on a softer note, though it remains within striking distance of the highest level since early October, touched last Thursday. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.1730 region, down less than 0.10% for the day.

Disappointing UK data weighed on the Sterling towards the end of the week, triggering a pullback in GBP/USD to fresh daily lows near 1.3360. Looking ahead, the next key event across the Channel is the BoE meeting on December 18.

Gold kicks off the new week on a slightly positive note following Friday's late pullback from levels just above mid-$4,300s or the highest since October 21. Bets for two more rate cuts by the US Fed next year continue to act as a tailwind for the non-yielding bullion. Apart from this, a softer risk tone and geopolitical uncertainties benefit the safe-haven precious metal. However, a modest US Dollar uptick might cap gains ahead of the delayed US NFP report on Tuesday.

After Fed decision, dollar traders lock gaze on NFP and CPI data. Will the BoE deliver a dovish interest rate cut? ECB expected to reiterate “good place” mantra. Will a BoJ rate hike help the yen recover some of its massive losses?

The S&P 500 continued to push higher yesterday as the US 2-year yield wavered around the 3.50% mark following a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut earlier this week that was ultimately perceived as not that hawkish after all. The cut is especially boosting the non-tech pockets of the market.

Aave (AAVE) price is trading above $204 at the time of writing on Friday and approaching the upper boundary of its descending parallel channel; a breakout from this structure would favor the bulls.