Bank of England review: BoE to lag peers in 2025 – We stay positive GBP
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At today's monetary policy meeting the BoE kept the Bank Rate unchanged at 4.75%, which was widely expected.
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The BoE delivered a dovish vote split but continues to emphasise a gradual approach to reducing the restrictiveness of monetary policy. We think this supports our base case of the next cut coming in February and a quarterly pace thereafter.
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The market reaction was modest with Gilt yields tracking slightly lower and EUR/GBP moving higher.
As expected, the Bank of England (BoE) decided to keep the Bank Rate unchanged at 4.75% today. The vote split had a dovish twist with 6 members voting for an unchanged decision and Dhingra, Ramsden and newcomer Taylor voting for a 25bp cut.
The BoE retained much of its previous guidance noting that "a gradual approach to removing policy restraint remains appropriate" and that "monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further". The MPC now judges that the labour market is "broadly in balance" and has similarly revised its expectation for Q4 growth down from 0.3% q/q to no growth as a reflection of the latest weakening in growth indicators. We also note that in the unchanged camp of the MPC, one member considered that a more "activist strategy" could be warranted, hinting at a more dovish shift in the centrist camp.
Given the recent topside surprises to wage and inflation data combined with an expansionary fiscal stance, we think a continuation of a gradual cutting cycle is warranted. We therefore adjust our call, expecting quarterly cuts in 2025 at the meetings associated with updated economic projections. We expect the next 25bp cut in February with the Bank Rate ending the year at 3.75% (prev. 3.25%). We maintain our terminal rate forecast unchanged at 2.75% but expect it to be reached by Q4 2026 (prev. Q2 2026). However, we highlight that the risk is skewed towards a swifter cutting cycle in the first half of 2025, as highlighted by the MPCs communication today.
Rates. Gilt yields moved lower across the board on the dovish vote split but overall, the reaction was muted. Markets price 18bp worth of cuts for February and 55bp by YE 2025. We highlight the potential for BoE to deliver more easing in 2025 than currently priced, expecting a cut in February and a total of 100bp worth of easing in 2025.
FX. EUR/GBP moved higher on the announcement with the dovish vote split taking centre stage. The still cautious guidance delivered today highlights the more gradual approach of the BoE compared to European peers. We think this supports our case of a continued move lower in EUR/GBP. This is further amplified by relative UK economic outperformance and tight credit spreads. The key risk is a soft BoE.
Author
Danske Research Team
Danske Bank A/S
Research is part of Danske Bank Markets and operate as Danske Bank's research department. The department monitors financial markets and economic trends of relevance to Danske Bank Markets and its clients.
