Australian Dollar hits new 2025 high, CPI looms

Kenny Fisher MarketPulse

The Australian dollar is lower on Tuesday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6398, down 0.49% on the day.

Australian CPI expected to fall

Australia's inflation rate has been dropping and we'll get a look at first-quarter CPI on Wednesday. Annualized, inflation is expected to ease to 2.3% from 2.4% in Q4.

The Q4 gain of 2.4% was the lowest reading since Q1 2021, driven by government subsidies for electricity and fuel, which dampened goods inflation.

The RBA's trimmed mean CPI, a key core inflation gauge, is expected to drop to 2.9%, down from 3.2% in Q4 which was the lowest rate in three years. Core CPI remains well above the central bank's target of 2% but another decline will make a stronger case for a rate cut. The Reserve Bank of Australia left the cash rate unchanged at 4.10% and meets again in May.

The RBA is satisfied that inflation is moving lower but remains concerned about the unclear economic outlook, as US President Trump has zig-zagged in his tariff policy. Australia is particularly concerned that the high tariffs rates on China will chill China's economy, leading to less demand for Australian exports.

US employment data eyed

In the US, the focus will be on employment data in the second half of the week. JOLTS Job Openings, which will be released later today, is expected to ease to 7.48 million from 7.56 million. This would mark a second consecutive deceleration and point to a weakening labor market.

All eyes are on Friday's nonfarm payrolls, which surprised on the upside last month with a gain of 228 thousand, blowing past the forecast of 140 thousand. The markets are braced for a weak nonfarm payrolls release of 135 thousand.

AUD/USD technical

AUD/USD is testing support at 0.6412. Below, there is support at 0.6389.
There is resistance at 0.6456 and 0.6479.

Author

Kenny Fisher

MarketPulse

A highly experienced financial market analyst with a focus on fundamental analysis, Kenneth Fisher’s daily commentary covers a broad range of markets including forex, equities and commodities.

EUR/USD flirts with daily highs, retargets 1.1900

EUR/USD regains upside traction, returning to the 1.1880 zone and refocusing its attention to the key 1.1900 barrier. The pair’s slight gains comes against the backdrop of a humble decline in the US Dollar as investors continue to assess the latest US CPI readings and the potential Fed’s rate path.

GBP/USD remains well bid around 1.3650

GBP/USD maintains its upside momentum in place, hovering around daily highs near 1.3650 and setting aside part of the recent three-day drop. Cable’s improved sentiment comes on the back of the Greenback’s irresolute price action, while recent hawkish comments from the BoE’s Pill also collaborate with the uptick.

Gold clings to gains just above $5,000/oz

Gold is reclaiming part of the ground lost on Wednesday’s marked decline, as bargain-hunters keep piling up and lifting prices past the key $5,000 per troy ounce. The precious metal’s move higher is also underpinned by the slight pullback in the US Dollar and declining US Treasury yields across the curve.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP in choppy price action, weighed down by falling institutional interest

Bitcoin's upside remains largely constrained amid weak technicals and declining institutional interest. Ethereum trades sideways above $1,900 support with the upside capped below $2,000 amid ETF outflows.

Week ahead – Data blitz, Fed Minutes and RBNZ decision in the spotlight

US GDP and PCE inflation are main highlights, plus the Fed minutes. UK and Japan have busy calendars too with focus on CPI. Flash PMIs for February will also be doing the rounds. RBNZ meets, is unlikely to follow RBA’s hawkish path.

Ripple Price Forecast: XRP potential bottom could be in sight

Ripple edges up above the intraday low of $1.35 at the time of writing on Friday amid mixed price actions across the crypto market. The remittance token failed to hold support at $1.40 the previous day, reflecting risk-off sentiment amid a decline in retail and institutional sentiment.