AUD/USD range bound in quiet trading

AUDUSD has largely ignored the swings in the US dollar this week, staying relatively stable within the 0.6500 area and slightly above its recent three-month low of 0.6439.

There is not much evidence of strong buying appetite at the moment as the RSI is pointing down in the bearish area below 50 and the stochastic oscillator is set for a negative reversal. Moreover, the short-term trend is clearly developing within a bearish channel and below the simple moving averages (SMAs), reflecting downbeat sentiment.

A move above the 20-day SMA and the former support trendline at 0.6555 could find immediate resistance at the upper band of the channel and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the ongoing bearish trend, which also lines up with the flattening 200-day SMA. Even higher, the bulls may attempt to violate the negative trend above the previous high and the 50% Fibonacci of 0.6690.

Should sellers breach the 0.6440 base, the decline could stretch toward the critical support trendline which connects the lows from 2022 to 2024 seen at 0.6380. A close lower could spark an aggressive downfall toward the 0.6270-0.6300 base. If the bears claim that floor too, the focus will turn to the 2022 bottom of 0.6169.

In brief, AUDUSD is not in great shape despite staying resilient above its recent lows. A rebound above 0.6630 could help avoid a bearish continuation, whilst a break below 0.6380 could signal further downside in the long-term picture.