AUD/USD gains amid anticipation for key economic data

Andrey Goilov RoboForex

The AUD/USD pair is climbing towards 0.6552 on Monday. The Australian dollar is bouncing back from a 12-week low as investors await Australian inflation data.

In the past two weeks, the AUD, in the currency pair with the USD, has fallen more than 3%. This happened amid a global sell-off in risky assets and also due to weak reports from China.

This week, the release of crucial price statistics will significantly influence the Reserve Bank of Australia's future course of action. Inflation is expected to have accelerated slightly in Australia in Q2 2024. For example, for April-June, inflation could have risen by 1.0% QoQ, the same as before. In annualised terms, it could accelerate to 3.8% from 3.6% previously. The data will be released on Wednesday.

This week, Australia's macroeconomic calendar will be particularly active. The release of reports on last quarter's retail sales, trade balance, exports and imports, and the producer price index will provide crucial insights into the economy. The stronger the data, the better – especially amid China's economic weakness, Australia's main economic partner. In this context, it is essential to remain resilient.

Currently, the market estimates the probability of the RBA interest rate hike in August to be 20%.

AUD/USD technical analysis

On the H4 chart of AUD/USD, the market performed a wave of decline to 0.6513. Today, it is relevant to consider the probability of correction development to the level of 0.6609. After the correction is completed, we will consider the likelihood of trend continuation to the level of 0.6468 with the prospect of trend continuation to the level of 0.6420. Technically, such a scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator. Its signal line is under the zero mark and is directed strictly downwards.

On the H1 AUD/USD chart, the market is forming a consolidation range around the level of 0.6561. In case of an upside exit, the potential of a wave to the level of 0.6609 will open. In case of a downward exit, we will consider the continuation of the wave to the level of 0.6468. The target is local. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator. Its signal line is under 50 and is directed strictly downwards to 20.

Author

Andrey Goilov

RoboForex

Higher economic education. Andrey Goilov has been working on the Forex market since 2005. A financial analyst and successful trader. Preference in trading is highly volatile instruments.

EUR/USD climbs to two-week highs beyond 1.1900

EUR/USD is keeping its foot on the gas at the start of the week, reclaiming the 1.1900 barrier and above on Monday. The US Dollar remains on the back foot, with traders reluctant to step in ahead of Wednesday’s key January jobs report, allowing the pair to extend its upward grind for now.

GBP/USD hits three-day peaks, targets 1.3700

GBP/USD is clocking decent gains at the start of the week, advancing to three-day highs near 1.3670 and building on Friday’s solid performance. The better tone in the British Pound comes on the back of the intense sekk-off in the Greenback and despite re-emerging signs of a fresh government crisis in the UK.

Gold treads water around $5,000

Gold is trading in an inconclusive fashion around the key $5,000 mark on Monday week. Support is coming from fresh signs of further buying from the PBoC, while expectations that the Fed could turn more dovish, alongside concerns over its independence, keep the demand for the precious metal running.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin steadies around $70,000, Ethereum and XRP remain under pressure

Bitcoin hovers around $70,000, up near 15% from last week's low of $60,000 despite low retail demand. Ethereum delicately holds $2,000 support as weak technicals weigh amid declining futures Open Interest. XRP seeks support above $1.40 after facing rejection at $1.54 during the previous week's sharp rebound.

Japanese PM Takaichi nabs unprecedented victory – US data eyed this week

I do not think I would be exaggerating to say that Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s snap general election gamble paid off over the weekend – and then some. This secured the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) an unprecedented mandate just three months into her tenure.

Ripple exposed to volatility amid low retail interest, modest fund inflows

Ripple (XRP) is extending its intraday decline to around $1.40 at the time of writing on Monday amid growing pressure from the retail market and risk-off sentiment that continues to keep investors on the sidelines.