AUD/USD Forecast: Poised to challenge the 2024 low at 0.6441

AUD/USD Current Price: 0.6483

• Chinese positive news maintained AUD/USD afloat at the beginning of the day.
• Falling United States stocks undermined commodity-linked currencies.
• AUD/USD maintains its bearish stance ahead of the Asian opening.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) plummeted against its American rival at the beginning of the week, with the pair heading into Tuesday's opening trading near the March low at 0.6476. The pair aimed north during Asian trading hours as good news from China underpinned the mood. AUD/USD peaked at 0.6537 as the Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI surged to 51.1 in March from 50.9 in February, also beating the expected 51.

The pair retreated in a dull European session and accelerated its slump after Wall Street's opening, as US indexes edged lower after the long weekend. Financial markets are digesting Friday news, which showed US inflation as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, held at 2.8% YoY in February. Following the report, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank is in no rush to hike rates amid still high inflation and a resilient economy.

Australia will return from a long weekend and kick-start the week with a busy macroeconomic calendar. The country will publish the March TD Securities Inflation report, an estimate provided by the University of Melbourne. The ANZ Job Advertisements report will also be on the docket, while the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will release the March Commodity Index SDR and the minutes of the March Meeting. Back then, Australian policymakers held the Cash Rate steady at 4.35% and reaffirmed their commitment to bring inflation back to target. "The Board needs to be confident that inflation is moving sustainably towards the target range. To date, medium-term inflation expectations have been consistent with the inflation target, and it is important that this remains the case," policymakers remarked.

AUD/USD short-term technical outlook

The AUD/USD pair trades around 0.6480, and the daily chart shows bears are in full control. The pair develops below all its moving averages, with the 200 Simple Moving Average (SMA) heading south below directionless shorter ones. At the same time, technical indicators gain downward momentum within negative levels, in line with another leg south towards 0.6441, the year's low.

In the 4-hour chart, the risk skews to the downside. AUD/USD accelerated lower once it broke below a now bearish 20 SMA. The longer moving averages grind lower above the shorter one, with the 100 SMA aiming to cross below the 200 SMA, usually a strong bearish signal. Finally, the Momentum indicator turned lower after a period of neutral consolidation, while the Relative Strength Index Indicator hovers around 36, in line with a bearish extension.

Support levels: 0.6475 0.6440 0.6400

Resistance levels: 0.6595 0.6530 0.6565