AUD/USD Forecast: No clear signs, consolidation around 0.6430 likely
AUD/USD Current Price: 0.6425
- The US Dollar retreated during the American session as US yields pulled back from multi-year highs.
- The AUD/USD pair managed to avoid a daily close under 0.6400.
- A consolidation between 0.6410 and 0.6450 over the next few hours seems likely.
The AUD/USD recovered during the Asian session and climbed back above 0.6400 as the US Dollar corrected to the downside following the rally from the Federal Reserve meeting and US data. Market conditions remain volatile, and incoming data could continue to cause price fluctuations.
The FOMC's hawkish pause triggered a rally in the US Dollar, which persisted until Thursday's American session. The AUD/USD pair reached a low point at 0.6385, the lowest level in a week. Economic data from the US showed a mixed picture, with initial Jobless Claims falling to 201K and Continuing Claims declining to 1.662 million, reaching their lowest levels since January; and the Philly Fed tumbled to -13.5 in September from -0.7.
The US Dollar initially peaked after the data but then reversed direction as US yields pulled back from multi-year highs and stock markets stabilized on Wall Street. Market conditions remain volatile, potentially favoring erratic moves.
On Friday, the preliminary figure for the Australian S&P Global PMI for September will be released. Later in the day, the US PMIs are scheduled. During Asian hours, the Bank of Japan meeting could trigger some action if it surprises markets. Market sentiment will also be critical for the pair.
AUD/USD short-term technical outlook
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The AUD/USD rebounded from its weekly lows and returned to the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.6430. This upward movement from the lows is seen as a positive sign for the Aussie, indicating a potential stabilization after the sharp reversal from above 0.6500. The pair continues to trade within a wide range, oscillating between 0.6350 and 0.6500.
On the 4-hour chart, the price has risen above an upward trendline and also surpassed the 0.6420 level. If the rebound continues, the next resistance stands at 0.6445, which is a horizontal level and the 20-SMA. Technical indicators offer mixed signals, influenced by the rebound. However, a consolidation below 0.6400 would weaken the outlook for the Aussie, suggesting a possible test of the critical area around 0.6350. Prior to the Asian session, consolidation between 0.6410 and 0.6450 appears likely.
Support levels: 0.6400 0.6370 0.6350
Resistance levels: 0.6445 0.6475 0.6505
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Author
Matías Salord
FXStreet
Matías started in financial markets in 2008, after graduating in Economics. He was trained in chart analysis and then became an educator. He also studied Journalism. He started writing analyses for specialized websites before joining FXStreet.
