- AUD/USD collapsed to the vicinity of 0.6500.
- The sharp bounce in the Greenback kept the AUD under pressure.
- The focus has now shifted to the 2024 low near 0.6480.
The strong resumption of the bid bias in the US Dollar (USD) prompted an equally marked retracement in the Aussie dollar and the rest of its risk-related peers, pushing AUD/USD to multi-session lows near 0.6500 on Wednesday.
In the meantime, the strong rebound in iron ore prices failed to mitigate the increased downward trend of the Australian dollar, while the knee-jerk in copper prices accompanied the daily pullback in spot.
Regarding the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), the recent release of its March meeting Minutes affirmed the bank's stance to refrain from considering tightening monetary policy. RBA cash rate futures still indicate an expectation of just under 50 bps of policy rate cuts in 2024, with the initial cut anticipated in November.
It's worth noting that the RBA is among the last G10 central banks expected to contemplate interest rate adjustments this year.
With the Federal Reserve's (Fed) reinforced stance on maintaining tighter policies over an extended period, accentuated by recent US inflation data, and the anticipation of the RBA beginning an easing cycle later in the year, AUD/USD faces increased potential for extended and intensified downward movements in both the short and medium terms.
AUD/USD daily chart
AUD/USD short-term technical outlook
If sellers remain in control, AUD/USD could fall to the April low of 0.6480 (April 1), followed by the March low of 0.6477 (March 5) and the 2024 bottom of 0.6442 (February 13). Breaking below this level may result in a test of the 2023 low of 0.6270 (October 26), prior to the round level of 0.6200.
Further upward is projected to initially test the April top of 0.6644 prior to the March peak of 0.6667 (March 8) and the December 2023 high of 0.6871. Further north, the July top of 0.6894 (July 14) precedes the June peak of 0.6899 (June 16) and the critical 0.7000 mark.
Looking at the big picture, the pair is projected to maintain its bearish trend while below the important 200-day SMA.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair's constructive bias appears threatened. The support comes at 0.6498 ahead of 0.6480. On the other hand, immediate resistance is at 0.6644, before 0.6667. Furthermore, the MACD stayed bullish, and the RSI fell to around 31.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD stays in positive territory above 1.0850 after US data
EUR/USD clings to modest daily gains above 1.0850 in the second half of the day on Friday. The improving risk mood makes it difficult for the US Dollar to hold its ground after PCE inflation data, helping the pair edge higher ahead of the weekend.
GBP/USD stabilizes above 1.2850 as risk mood improves
GBP/USD maintains recovery momentum and fluctuates above 1.2850 in the American session on Friday. The positive shift seen in risk mood doesn't allow the US Dollar to preserve its strength and supports the pair.
Gold rebounds above $2,380 as US yields stretch lower
Following a quiet European session, Gold gathers bullish momentum and trades decisively higher on the day above $2,380. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield loses more than 1% on the day after US PCE inflation data, fuelling XAU/USD's upside.
Avalanche price sets for a rally following retest of key support level
Avalanche (AVAX) price bounced off the $26.34 support level to trade at $27.95 as of Friday. Growing on-chain development activity indicates a potential bullish move in the coming days.
The election, Trump's Dollar policy, and the future of the Yen
After an assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump and drop out of President Biden, Kamala Harris has been endorsed as the Democratic candidate to compete against Trump in the upcoming November US presidential election.