AUD/JPY trade idea: How to play the short term trend accelerating lower

Introduction

VolatilityMarkets suggests top quant trade ideas to take advantage of trending markets.

Market summary

Price

AUDJPY last price was ¥ 90.1405.

Trend analysis

In the short term AUDJPY has been accelerating lower. In the long term AUDJPY has been accelerating lower.

Value analysis

Over the past 20 days, the AUDJPY price increased 8 days and decreased 12 days.

For every up day, there were 1.5 down days.

The average return on days where the price increased is 0.1492%

The average return on days where the price decreased is -0.2912%

Performance

Over the past 20 Days, the price has decreased by -2.29% percent.

Over the past 20 days, the average return per day has been -0.1145% percent.

Trade idea

With the short term trend being the stronger of the two, we propose a short trade idea with an overnight time horizon.

The trade idea

Sell $ 677,812 USD , or 6.78 lots of AUDJPY, take profit at ¥ 89.9131 level with 25.0% odds for a $ 1,710 USD gain, stop out at ¥ 90.2735 with 50.08% odds for a $ 1,000 USD loss through O/N time horizon

Intraday predictions

AUD/JPY trend analysis

AUDJPY last price was ¥ 90.1405 . The short term trend accelerating lower is stronger than the long term trend accelerating lower. This trade goes short when the last change was lower and accelerating.

AUD/JPY value analysis

Over the past 20 days, the AUDJPY price increased 8 days and decreased 12 days. For every up day, there were 1.5 down days. The average return on days where the price increased is 0.1492% The average return on days where the price decreased is -0.2912% Over the past 20 Days, the price has decreased by -2.29% percent. Over the past 20 days, the average return per day has been -0.1145% percent.

AUD/JPY worst/best case scenario analysis

Within 1 week, our worst case scenario where we are 95% certain that this level won't trade for AUDJPY, is $ 89.752615 , and the best case scenario overnight is $ 90.528447 . levels outside of this range are unlikely, but still possible, to trade. We are 50% confident that $ 90.2735 could trade and that $ 89.9131 could trade. These levels are within statistical probability.

Expected range

Within 1 week, our worst case scenario where we are 95% certain that this level won't trade for AUDJPY, is $ 89.752615 , and the best case scenario overnight is $ 90.528447 . levels outside of this range are unlikely, but still possible, to trade.

We are 50% confident that $ 90.2735 could trade and that $ 89.9131 could trade. These levels are within statistical probability.

Probability vs payout chart

This graph contrasts the percentage payout of holding a position vs the probability that the payout occurs. The red and green columns represent the probability of stopping out and taking profit and their associated payouts.

Key takeaways

• Price today ¥ 90.1405.

• Over the past 20 days, the AUDJPY price increased 8 days and decreased 12 Days.

• For every up day, there were 1.5 down days.

• The average return on days where the price increased is 0.1492%.

• The average return on days where the price decreased is -0.2912%.

• Over the past 20 Days, the price has decreased by -2.29% percent.

• Over the past 20 days, the average return per day has been -0.1145% percent.

• Over the past 20 days, The price has on average been accelerating: 0.0184¥ per day lower.

• Over the last session, the price decreased by -0.3497 ¥.

• Over the last session, the price decreased by -0.388 %.

• Over the last session, the price accelerated by 0.3157¥.