TradeTheNews.com Staff
TradeTheNews.com
General trend
- Pres Trump continues to fill out his Cabinet and senior roles for his 2025 Administration. Senator Marco Rubio for Secretary of State, Congressman Mike Waltz as National Security Advisor and Tom Homan as Border Czar seen as hawks and supportive of the Trump agenda. USD/JPY regained 154 handle.
- Asian equities pulled back across the board as markets attempt to digest the ex-US impact to national and regional economies. Hang Seng under-performed for the second day running, -2.5%
- China commerce sites JD.com and Alibaba’s Taobao & Tmall reported an increase in shoppers for 2024 Singles Day (Nov 11th), with Alibaba’s units reporting record active buyers during the 11.11 shopping festival.
- Australian consumer and business confidence continued to rise as per recent months, although data compiler’s warned of any potential negative Trump-effect on the Australian economy.
- With Japanese bank earnings this week, Japan's three mega banks expected to post over ¥2T ($13B) in H1 net income, on pace for another record year.
- China PBOC's Yuan fix was the weakest since Sept, 2023, amid concerns about continued level of US exports with a Trump Administration.
- Overnight, China's level of lending in its monthly Aggregate Financing and New Yuan Loans continued to disappoint, amid a flood of govt bond issuance.
- US equity FUTs flat during the Asia session.
Looking ahead (Asian time zone)
- Tue Nov 12th (Tue eve DE ZEW Econ Sentiment; ** Note figure is pre-Trump election victory).
- Wed Nov 13th (Wed night US Oct CPI).
- Thu Nov 14th AU jobs, (Thu night US Oct PPI).
- Fri Nov 15th JP Q3 GDP, CN Oct ‘data dump’ (Fri eve UK Q3 prelim GDP, Fri night US Oct Retail Sales + Industrial Production).
Holidays in Asia this week
- Fri Nov 15th India.
Headlines/economic data
Australia/New Zealand
- ASX 200 opens -0.2% at 8,252.
- Australia Nov Westpac Consumer Confidence: 94.6 v 89.8 prior.
- Australia Oct NAB Business Confidence: +5 v -2 prior.
- Australia ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index: 86.7 v 86.5 prior (update).
- Australia sells A$150M v A$150M indicated in 0.25% Nov 2032 Indexed Bonds: Avg Yield 2.0503% v 1.8566% prior: bid-to-cover: 3.77x v 4.61x prior.
- New Zealand Oct Total Card Spending M/M: +0.4% v +0.3% prior; Retail Card Spending M/M: +0.6% v +0.1% prior.
- New Zealand Treasury: Second-tier data suggests NZ economy is "turning up" (inline).
China/Hong Kong
- Hang Seng opens -0.5% at 20,334; Shanghai Composite opens flat at 3,469.
- China said to plan to slash home buying taxes to boost property sector; home purchase deed tax could be cut to 1% from 3% - financial press.
- JD.com Reports +20% y/y increase in shoppers for 2024 Singles Day (Nov 11th) (update).
- Alibaba: Taobao and Tmall (Alibaba's Group's China commerce retail business) generated robust GMV growth and record active buyers during the 11.11 shopping festival; Spending by 88VIP members drove business growth for brands and merchants.
- China Oct YTD new Yuan loans (CNY): 16.52T V 16.72TE [overnight update].
- China Oct YTD aggregate financing (CNY): 27.06T V 27.20TE [overnight update].
- China Oct M2 money supply Y/Y: 7.5% V 7.0%E [overnight update].
- EU reportedly sees little chance of quick China deal to avoid EV tariffs – press [overnight update].
- Follow Up: SCMP: China export 'rush' expected ahead of 'Trump's trade war 2.0' [overnight update].
- Russia Kremlin Spokesperson: Report on Trump/Putin call is UNTRUE [overnight update].
- China PBOC sets Yuan reference rate: 7.1927 v 7.1786 prior [weakest since Sept 12th, 2023].
- China PBOC Open Market Operation (OMO): Injects CNY126B in 7-day reverse repos; Net injects CNY107B v net injects CNY116B prior.
Japan
- NiIkkei 225 opens +0.3% at 39,642.
- Japan Oct M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 0.7% v 0.8% prior; M2 Money Supply Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.3% prior.
- Japan PM Ishiba to meet China Pres Xi in Peru on Friday (at APEC) - Japanese press.
- Follow up: Japan Econ Min Muto: Confirms to be working on additional support ¥10T (~$65B) chip plan - financial press.
- Japan's three megabanks expected to post over ¥2T ($13B) in H1 net income, on pace for another record year - Nikkei.
- Japan PM Ishiba: To provide >¥10T (~$65B) in chip and AI support by FY30; Want govt, business and labor leader wage talks this month [overnight update].
- Bank of Japan (BOJ) announcement related to outright bond buying operations: For 1-3 Years, 3-5 Years, 5-10 Years and 10-25 Years (Inline with prior purchases).
- Japan parliament votes to keep Ishiba as PM (as expected) [overnight update].
Korea
- Kospi opens -0.1% at 2,527.
- KDI [state think tank]: Cuts South Korea GDP and inflation forecasts.
Other Asia
- Malaysia government has the tools to halt decline of the Ringgit (MYR) currency; no sources cited - Local press, citing report.
North America
- (US) Pres-elect Trump expected to name Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL) as Secretary of State - NYT.
- US) Republicans projected to maintain control of US house - Decision Desk HQ (as expected).
- (US) Pres-elect Trump reported to select Congressman Mike Waltz (R-FL) as National Security Advisor - WSJ.
- (US) Punchbowl: Republicans are on track to keep the same-sized majority in the next Congress, although this time with President-elect Donald Trump to keep them in line; In that span, Democrats needed to bail out Republicans on every single must-pass bill, such as government funding and debt limit hikes.
- (MX) Mexico Oct Consumer Confidence: 49.4 v 46.9e.
Europe
- (IL) Israel Oct Budget Balance (ILS): -11.2B v -8.8B prior.
- (IN) India Govt Official: See no expenditure shortfall this year; See overall net cash outgo as minimal.
- (IL) Israel Fin Min Smotrich: Has given instructions to prepare for extending sovereignty into West Bank; Hopes Trump Administration will recognize Israeli move for sovereignty in West Bank.
Levels as of 01:20 ET
- Nikkei 225 -1.0%, ASX 200 -0.1%, Hang Seng -2.5%; Shanghai Composite -0.4%; Kospi -1.4%.
- Equity S&P500 Futures flat; Nasdaq100 flat; Dax -0.4%; FTSE100 -0.2%.
- EUR 1.0638-1.0683; JPY 153.43 -154.06; AUD 0.6550-0.6582; NZD 0.5954-0.5973.
- Gold +0.1% at $2,618/oz; Crude Oil -0.3% at $67.84/brl; Copper -0.7% at $4.2148/lb.
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